Madam Helga Claims to Be Psychic

Multiple Choice

Madam Helga claims to be psychic. A national TV talk personality plans to test her in a live TV broadcast. The process will entail asking Madam Helga a series of 20 independent questions with yes/no answers. The questions would be of the nature that she could not have any way of knowing the answer from prior knowledge. Suppose that Madam Helga correctly answered 15 of the 20 questions, which of the following would be a viable conclusion to reach?

A) Because the probability of guessing 15 or more correctly is 0.0207, it is unlikely that she is guessing at the questions and may, in fact, have some special ability.
B) Because the probability of getting 15 or more correct is 0.0207, it is likely that she is just guessing at the questions.
C) If she were guessing, 15 is within one standard deviation of the mean and therefore she must not have any special psychic abilities.
D) Because the probability of guessing exactly 15 correct is 0.0148, she must just be guessing.