Urn 1 Contains 2 Blue Tokens and 8 Red Tokens;

Short Answer

Urn 1 contains 2 blue tokens and 8 red tokens; urn 2 contains 12 blue tokens and 3 red tokens. You roll a die to determine which urn to choose: if you roll a 1 or 2 you choose urn 1; if you roll a 3, 4, 5, or 6 you choose urn 2. Once the urn is chosen, you draw out a token at random from that urn. Given that the token is blue, what is the probability that the token came from urn 1?