If Asked, "Which Is More Probable? A

Multiple Choice

If asked, "Which is more probable? A.The New York Yankees will not be in the lead after the first half of the baseball season but will win their division.B.The New York Yankees will not be in the lead after the first half of the baseball season." Most people would answer A, although A is less likely to be true than B.According to Tversky and Kahneman, such faulty conclusions are based on

A) the framing effect.
B) the representativeness heuristic.
C) convergent thinking.
D) divergent thinking.