Suppose the National Activity Index of the Federal Reserve Bank

Multiple Choice

Suppose the National Activity Index of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago drops to -0.83 this month after being above +0.36 for the previous three months. This movement in the index indicates that

A) the economy has probably moved into a recession.
B) the rate of economic growth has slowed, but not enough to suggest that a recession is imminent.
C) the rate of economic growth has dropped below the historical trend rate of growth, and the economy has reached a trough.
D) the economy is at its peak this month but will move into the recession stage in the near future.