Suppose the National Activity Index of the Federal Reserve Bank

Multiple Choice

Suppose the National Activity Index of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago hovered around +0.25 for a few months but then dropped to -1.5 in November. What is the BEST interpretation of this finding?

A) The economy grew at a rate of 0.25% for a few months, but economic growth actually decreased by 1.5% in November.
B) The rate of economic growth slowed in November, but the economy did not move into a recession.
C) The economy was in an expansion in October but moved into a recession in November.
D) Economic activity was above the historical trend rate of growth, but it is likely that the economy moved into a recession in November.