Essay
Keith Monroe is deciding among four alternatives and fleshes out the decision tree shown below. He has developed excellent estimates of payoffs but admits he has no clue about the probabilities for the two states of nature. He wants to cover all of his bases, so he would like to calculate the probability of high demand for which each alternative is superior. Analyze this situation and make recommendations for him. He promises to cut you in for 30% of the profits if you can show him how to calculate the ranges.
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