Suppose That Your Friend Plans to Become a Professional Drummer

True/False

Suppose that your friend plans to become a professional drummer and only 2% of all people who want to become professional drummers actually achieve this goal. In addition, suppose that he has "connections," and 80% of all successful drummers have connections like his. Only 10% of unsuccessful drummers have the same sort of connections. This means that his probability of success would increase slightly above 2%.