Suppose the Money Demand of Individuals and Firms Depends on What

Essay

Suppose the money demand of individuals and firms depends on what they perceive to be the probabilities that the economy will expand or contract over the following six months.Suppose their money demand is given by the equation L = 0.5 Y - 100i + 20z,where z is the probability that the economy is expanding six months in the future.If z = 1 the economy will certainly be in recovery;if z = 0 the economy will certainly be in recession,and for z between 0 and 1 there is some uncertainly about the future state of the economy.Use a classical (RBC)model of the economy.If the Central Bank moves the money supply to target the price level,how does the money supply relate to the expected future state of the economy? Is this an example of reverse causation?