Joe Foster and His Wife, Monica, Are Both Fabric Artists

Essay

Joe Foster and his wife, Monica, are both fabric artists. Joe has begun a small business to raise additional cash by producing and selling screen-printed T-shirts, decorated caps, and other accessories at local weekend regattas. He is considering expanding this venture and producing and selling similar merchandise at lacrosse tournaments in the same region. Joe has reasoned that the expanded venture only makes sense if weekend revenue at a lacrosse event is at least $10,000, and has begun planning scenarios to consider the feasibility of this level of success. Based on his experience at the regattas, and information regarding the size and demographics of the lacrosse population, he feels the most likely weekend sales will be $7,000 and that this will occur with a probability of 60%. Joe's estimate of the most pessimistic outcome is $3,000, but he is confident that this will only occur 10% of the time.
Required. Given these above estimates, how large must Joe's most optimistic revenue outcome be to justify the lacrosse venture?