A Concert Promoter Is Forecasting This Year's Attendance for One

Multiple Choice

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data: $$\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline { \text { Year } } & \text { Attendance } \\\hline \text { Four Years ago } & 10,000 \\\hline \text { Three Years ago } & 12,000 \\\hline \text { Two Years ago } & 18,000 \\\hline \text { Last Year } & 20,000 \\\hline\end{array}$$
What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if last year's smoothed forecast was 15,000?

A)  20,000
B)  19,000
C)  17,500
D)  16,000
E)  15,000