Two Professors at a Nearby University Want to Coauthor a New

Multiple Choice

Two professors at a nearby university want to coauthor a new textbook in either economics or statistics. They feel that if they write an economics book, they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher, and it should ultimately sell about 40,000 copies. If they cannot get a major publisher to take it, then they feel they have an 80 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher, with ultimate sales of 30,000 copies. On the other hand, if they write a statistics book, they feel they have a 40 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher, and it should result in ultimate sales of about 50,000 copies. If they cannot get a major publisher to take it, they feel they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher, with ultimate sales of 35,000 copies.
What is the probability that the economics book would wind up being placed with a smaller publisher?

A)  .8
B)  .5
C)  .4
D)  .2
E)  .1