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Suppose Barbara Looks Out in the Morning and Sees a Clear

Question 72

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Suppose Barbara looks out in the morning and sees a clear sky so decides that a picnic for lunch is a good idea. Last night the weather forecast included a 100 percent chance of rain by midday but Barbara did not watch the local news program. Is Barbara's prediction of good weather at lunch time rational? Why or why not?

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No, this prediction does not use rationa...

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