Exhibit 9-1
a Farmer Must Decide Whether to Take Protective

Essay

Exhibit 9-1
A farmer must decide whether to take protective action to limit damage to his grapefruit crop in the event that the overnight temperature falls to a level well below freezing. If the temperature drops too low he runs the risk of losing his entire crop, valued at $75,000. Based on the National Weather Service, the probability of such a temperature drop is 60%. He can insulate his crop by spraying water on all the trees, which will cost $20,000. This action might succeed in protecting the crop, with the following $$\begin{array} { l l } \text { Probability } & \text { Damage } \\0.30 & \$ 0 \\0.15 & \$ 5,000 \\0.10 & \$ 10,000 \\0.15 & \$ 15,000 \\0.30 & \$ 20,000\end{array}$$
-Refer to Exhibit 9-1.Construct a risk profile and from that determine the probability that no additional cost is incurred if the decision to insulate at a cost of $20,000 is made.​​