Suppose You Have $200 with Which You Can Buy Shares

Multiple Choice

Suppose you have $200 with which you can buy shares of stock from two companies: ABC Hot Chocolate Company and XYZ Lemonade. Each company's stock currently sells for $100 per share. If the temperature next year is lower than average, the stock price for ABC will increase by $20, and the stock price for XYZ will not change. If the temperature next year is higher than average, the stock price for XYZ will increase by $20, and the stock price for ABC will not change. There is a 50% chance that it will be colder than average next year, and a 25% chance that it will be warmer than average. If you purchase two shares of XYZ stock and no shares of ABC stock, there is a ______ chance that your gain will be $40. Otherwise, your gain will be ______.

A) 50%; $30
B) 25%; $0
C) 75%; $20
D) 50%; $20