A Concert Promoter Is Forecasting This Year's Attendance for One

Multiple Choice

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data: $$\begin{array} { l l } \text { Year } & \text { Attendance } \\\hline \text { Four years ago } & 10,000 \\\text { Three years ago } & 12,000 \\\text { Two years ago } & 18,000 \\\text { Last Year } & 20,000\end{array}$$ What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if last year's smoothed forecast was 15,000?

A) 20,000
B) 19,000
C) 17,500
D) 16,000
E) 15,000