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A Time Series for the Years 1996-2001 Is Shown Below

Question 142

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A time series for the years 1996-2001 is shown below. A time series for the years 1996-2001 is shown below. The forecasts for the years 2002-2004 with three smoothing constant values are: With w = .2,F<sub>2002</sub> = F<sub>2003</sub> = F<sub>2004</sub> = 125.60 With w = .5,F<sub>2002</sub> = F<sub>2003</sub> = F<sub>2004</sub> = 126.75 With w = .6,F<sub>2002</sub> = F<sub>2003</sub> = F<sub>2004</sub> = 126.55 Compare each of the three sets of forecasts with the actual values for 2002-2004 given in the accompanying table,and compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD)for each model.Which model is best? The forecasts for the years 2002-2004 with three smoothing constant values are:
With w = .2,F2002 = F2003 = F2004 = 125.60
With w = .5,F2002 = F2003 = F2004 = 126.75
With w = .6,F2002 = F2003 = F2004 = 126.55
Compare each of the three sets of forecasts with the actual values for 2002-2004 given in the accompanying table,and compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD)for each model.Which model is best? A time series for the years 1996-2001 is shown below. The forecasts for the years 2002-2004 with three smoothing constant values are: With w = .2,F<sub>2002</sub> = F<sub>2003</sub> = F<sub>2004</sub> = 125.60 With w = .5,F<sub>2002</sub> = F<sub>2003</sub> = F<sub>2004</sub> = 126.75 With w = .6,F<sub>2002</sub> = F<sub>2003</sub> = F<sub>2004</sub> = 126.55 Compare each of the three sets of forecasts with the actual values for 2002-2004 given in the accompanying table,and compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD)for each model.Which model is best?

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blured image With w = 0.2,MAD = 4.80.With ...

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