Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives and constructed the following tables which show (1)expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities, and (2)the advisor's track record on predicting Bull and Bear markets.

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\text { Actual Market }

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\text { Market Condition }

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\text {Advisor's}

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\text {Condition}

\begin{array}{c}\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|}\hline \text { Investment } & \text { Bull (0.8) } & \text { Bear (0.2) } & \text { EMV } \\\hline \text { Bonds } & 12 & -3 & 9 \\\hline \text { Stocks } & 25 & -30 & 14 \\\hline \end{array}&\begin{array}{|c|c|c|}\hline\text { Prediction } & \text { Bull }\left(S_{1}\right) & \text { Bear }\left(S_{2}\right) \\\hline \text { Bull }\left(F_{1}\right) & 0.9 & 0.3 \\\hline \text { Bear }\left(F_{2}\right) & 0.1 & 0.7\\\hline \end{array}\end{array}

The probability that the advisor predicts a Bull market, P (F₁), is ________.
A)0.78
B)0.894
C)0.953
D)0.923
E)1.000

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