Community General Hospital Finds Itself Treating Many Bicycle Accident Victims $$\begin{array} { c c } \text { Day } & \text { Bicycle Victims } \\\hline1 & 6 \\2 & 8 \\3 & 4 \\4 & 7 \\5 & 9 \\6 & 9 \\7 & 7\end{array}$$

Essay

Community General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle accident victims. Data from the last seven 24-hour periods is shown below:
$$\begin{array} { c c } \text { Day } & \text { Bicycle Victims } \\\hline1 & 6 \\2 & 8 \\3 & 4 \\4 & 7 \\5 & 9 \\6 & 9 \\7 & 7\end{array}$$
a. What is the forecast for day 4 using a moving average model with AP = 3?
b. With an alpha value of .5 and a starting forecast in day 4 equal to the actual data, what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 8?
c. What is the MAD for days 6 to 8 for an exponentially smoothed forecasting model with an alpha value of .5 and a starting forecast in day 4 equal to the actual data?
d. What is the tracking signal for days 6 to 8 for an exponentially smoothed forecasting model with an alpha value of .5 and a starting forecast in day 4 equal to the actual data?