Instruction 14-15
the Manager of a Health Fitness Club Has

Short Answer

Instruction 14-15
The manager of a health fitness club has recorded average attendance in newly introduced Zumba classes over the last 15 months: 32.1,39.5,40.3,46.0,65.2,73.1,83.7,106.8,118.0,133.1,163.3,182.8,205.6,249.1,and 263.5.She then used Microsoft Excel to obtain the following partial output for both a first- and second-order autoregressive model.
SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2nd Order Model
Regression Statistics
$\begin{array}{lr}\text { Multiple R } & 0.993 \\ \text { R Square } & 0.987 \\ \text { Adjusted R Square } & 0.985 \\ \text { Standard Error } & 9.276 \\ \text { Observations } & 15\end{array}$

$\begin{array}{l}\text { Coefficients }\\\begin{array}{ll}\text { Intercept } & 5.86 \\\text { X Variable 1 } & 0.37 \\\text { X Variable 2 } & 0.85\end{array}\end{array}$

SUMMARY OUTPUT - $1^{\text {st }}$ Order Model
Regression Statistics
$\begin{array}{lr}\text { Multiple R } & 0.993 \\ \text { R Square } & 0.987 \\ \text { Adjusted R Square } & 0.985 \\ \text { Standard Error } & 9.150 \\ \text { Observations } & 15\end{array}$

$\begin{array}{l}\text { Coefficients }\\\begin{array}{ll}\text { Intercept } & 5.66 \\\text { X Variable } 1 & 1.10\end{array}\end{array}$
-Referring to Instruction 14-15,using the first-order model,the forecast of mean attendance for month 16 is ________.