Scenario 7 -Use a Simple Moving Average of Three Periods to Forecast

Essay

Scenario 7.5 - Gulab Greatness
Historical demand for gulab jamun from a sweet stall on Commercial Road is as displayed in the table.
$$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Month } & \begin{array} { c } \text { Demand } \\\text { (orders) }\end{array} \\\hline \text { January } & 66,753 \\\hline \text { February } & 67,686 \\\hline \text { March } & 68,641 \\\hline \text { April } & 68,979 \\\hline \text { May } & 69,278 \\\hline \text { June } & 69,577 \\\hline \text { July } & 69,602 \\\hline \text { August } & 70,348 \\\hline \text { September } & 70,806 \\\hline \text { October } & 71,011 \\\hline \text { November } & 71,819 \\\hline \text { December } & 72,752 \\\hline\end{array}$$
-Use a simple moving average of three periods to forecast the demand for October.Then use exponential smoothing with an alpha = 0.4 to forecast October,assuming an August forecast equal to August demand.Finally,use Holt's method with an alpha of 0.2 and a beta of 0.3.