Gamma Corporation Has Incurred Large Losses Over the Last Ten

Multiple Choice

Gamma Corporation has incurred large losses over the last ten years due to exchange rate fluctuations of the Egyptian pound (EGP) , even though the company has used a market-based forecast based on the forward rate. Consequently, management believes its forecasts to be biased. The following regression model was estimated to determine if the forecasts over the last ten years were biased:
S_t = a₀ + a₁Ft _-1 + mt,
Where S_t is the spot rate of the pound in year t and Ft _-1 is the forward rate of the pound in year t - 1. Regression results reveal coefficients of a₀ = 0 and a₁ = 1.3. Thus, Gamma has reason to believe that its past forecasts have ____ the realized spot rate.

A) overestimated
B) underestimated
C) correctly estimated
D) none of the above