You Are Asked to Rate How Likely It Is That

Multiple Choice

You are asked to rate how likely it is that a student, Steve, will pass an upcoming exam. You are told that, in the past, the "pass" rate for this exam is 30%. Which of the following statements about your rating is MOST LIKELY to be true? You will:

A) use base rates in your decision.
B) ignore the base-rate information.
C) imply a cause-and-effect relationship between the pass rate and the student being judged.
D) say the chance of the student passing is 0.8.