Essay
An investor in Apple is worried the latest management earnings forecast is too aggressive and the company will fall short.His favorite analyst that covers Apple is going to release his report on Apple the week before the earnings announcement.Report stands for the analyst's report,and Forecast stands for the earnings announcement.Prior ProbabilitiesConditional Probabilities P(Good Report)= 0.2 P(Below Forecast | Good Report)= 0.1 P(Medium Report)= 0.5 P(Below Forecast | Medium Report)= 0.4 P(Bad Report)= 0.3 P(Below Forecast | Bad Report)= 0.9 What is the probability the analyst issued a good report given Apple's earnings announcement was below the forecast?
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