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A Manufacturer of Air-Conditioning Systems Expects to Sell 10,000 Units

Question 28

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A manufacturer of air-conditioning systems expects to sell 10,000 units next year if the economy recovers from the present recession. If the economy remains at its present state, the firm expects to sell 7,000 units, and if the recession worsens, sales will fall to 3,000 units. A survey of 40 economists reveals that 30 of them are forecasting recovery, 5 of them are expecting no change, and the rest expect a worse recession. Estimate the expected sales of air-conditioning systems for next year.

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Probability of recovery = (30/40) = .75,...

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