Deck 11: Judgment and Reasoning

Question 1

Which of the following is NOT an example of a frequency judgment?

A) "You've only worn that shirt once since I gave it to you!"
B) "I am certain that he is bluffing."
C) "There certainly are a lot of pizzerias in this neighborhood."
D) "The number of truly caring physicians is getting smaller and smaller."

Answer 1

B

Question 2

Which of the following is an example of the gambler's fallacy?

A) "I know the chances of winning the lottery are small, but someone has to win it and I could be the one!"
B) "I've gotten a low number the last eight times I've rolled the dice, so a high number is coming up soon!"
C) "There's an equal chance for any team to win the league's championship."
D) "The best strategy at the horse races is to bet in the same way as the crowd is betting."

Answer 2

B

Question 3

In one experiment, participants were asked to list either 6 or 12 instances in their lives when they were assertive. Which of the following statements in NOT true about the participants who were asked to list only 6 instances?

A) Overall, they rated themselves as less aggressive.
B) They had an easier time fulfilling the task.
C) They were given an easier task than the 12-instance participants.
D) They relied on the availability heuristic when making their decision.

Answer 3

A

Question 4

The term "covariation" refers to

A) the relationship between the frequency of objects in the world and their availability in memory.
B) the pattern of evidence leading participants to the gambler's fallacy.
C) a cause-and-effect relationship between two variables.
D) the tendency in a pattern of data for observations of one sort to be linked to observations of another sort.

Question 5

Before reading about a depressed individual, participants are told that the case is not at all typical. This instruction will

A) prevent participants from using the representativeness heuristic.
B) encourage participants to use the representativeness heuristic.
C) not affect participants' spontaneous use of the representativeness heuristic.
D) influence participants' willingness to draw conclusions from a single case.

Question 6

Human judgment is bound to be subjective and contain at least a few errors because

A) decisions are often based on memories and memory is sensitive to manipulations and errors.
B) the human mind is incapable of storing everything it needs to make rational judgments all the time.
C) we learn how to make judgments from other humans, thus it is inherently flawed.
D) the process of evolution favored those individuals who were right most of the time and only occasionally made mistakes.

Question 7

Many of us overestimate our own popularity. This could be because we surround ourselves with people who like us, rather than with people who do not. Therefore, it is easier for us to think of the names of people who like us than it is to think of the names of our enemies. This overestimation of popularity seems to derive from using

A) anchoring.
B) base rates.
C) the atmosphere pattern.
D) the availability heuristic.

Question 8

Reasoning from "man who" arguments is usually inappropriate because generalizing from a single case is justified only

A) for heterogeneous categories.
B) when the sample size is adequate.
C) when the base rates are unknown.
D) for truly homogeneous categories.

Question 9

In several studies, participants have been asked to estimate the frequency of occurrence for various causes of death. The evidence suggests that participants' frequency estimates are strongly influenced by

A) whether the cause of death was related to natural forces (e.g., lightning, tornado).
B) how often the cause of death is discussed in the news media.
C) whether the cause of death is associated with prolonged suffering.
D) how well the cause of death fits with participants' schematic knowledge.

Question 10

The availability heuristic is a strategy in which

A) category frequencies tend to be overestimated.
B) people base their estimates of frequency on how easily they can think of examples of the relevant category.
C) people judge frequency by referring to their sense of familiarity with the category.
D) category frequencies are estimated on the basis of schematic knowledge.

Question 11

Participants are told, "Hospital A has an average of 45 births per day; Hospital B has an average of only 15 births per day." The participants are then asked, "Which hospital is more likely to have a day in which at least 60% of the babies born are female?" In answering the question, participants

A) seem insensitive to the fact that departures from the average case are more likely with a small sample.
B) seem insensitive to the fact that departures from the average case are more likely with a larger sample.
C) correctly realize that departures from the average case are not dependent on hospital size.
D) answer in a fashion governed by the law of small numbers.

Question 12

In using the representativeness heuristic, participants

A) extrapolate from a sample of evidence if the category is homogeneous but not if the category is heterogeneous.
B) are sensitive to the sample size and draw conclusions more readily from a large sample.
C) seem to assume that all instances of the category resemble the prototype for that category.
D) are unable to discriminate actual patterns of covariation.

Question 13

In one study, participants were shown a film about a family on welfare and then asked for their opinions about welfare. Prior to viewing the film, half of the participants were told that the film showed a highly unusual case. The other participants were told that the film showed a quite typical case. After viewing the film, participants were asked their opinions about welfare. On the basis of other evidence, we would expect to find that

A) both groups of participants were influenced equally by the film.
B) neither group of participants was influenced by the film.
C) participants who were told that the case was unusual were less influenced by the film than those who viewed the typical case.
D) participants who were told that the case was unusual were not influenced by the film.

Question 14

"I can easily think of the names of several dishonest politicians, so I'm certain there are a lot of dishonest politicians!" This is an example of a judgment relying on

A) illusory covariation.
B) representativeness.
C) anchoring.
D) the availability heuristic.

Question 15

The availability heuristic

A) is a time-consuming strategy, so it is employed by participants only when a judgment requires special care.
B) leads us to overestimate frequency if category members are particularly difficult to remember.
C) leads us to underestimate frequency because there are usually more category members beyond the ones we recall.
D) often, but not always, leads to correct estimates because availability in memory is often correlated with frequency in the world.

Question 16

When we encounter a highly unusual event, we are particularly likely to notice and consider the event. As a consequence,

A) we are likely to think about how distinctive the event really is, leading us to underestimate the likelihood of this type of event.
B) we are likely to think about the event as being in its own special category, so the event will have little impact on our estimates of frequency.
C) the event will be easy to recall, leading us to overestimate the likelihood of this type of event.
D) the event will be difficult to recall, leading us to underestimate the likelihood of this type of event.

Question 17

Heuristics are strategies that

A) sometimes risk error in order to gain efficiency.
B) are underused, despite their advantages.
C) protect us from overestimating the frequency of real-life events.
D) ensure step-by-step procedures for finding correct conclusions.

Question 18

Megan cannot sleep at night because she is terribly worried about being robbed, which is highly unlikely. As her friend, you want to help her by describing judgment errors and why she should not lose any more sleep. Which concept is NOT contributing to her irrational fear?

A) base rates for getting robbed
B) the availability heuristic for people getting robbed
C) memory bias for extreme events
D) underestimating sample size for the number of robbers out there

Question 19

An employer interviews a job candidate for 15 minutes. On the basis of this interview, the employer decides that the candidate will perform well in the job, so he hires her. This is a case of a

A) sound decision because the employer is making use of available information.
B) sound decision because the employer is employing base rates.
C) potential error because the employer is assuming that a small sample of information (the interview) is representative of a broader pattern (job performance).
D) potential error because the employer is relying on schema-based reasoning rather than deduction.

Question 20

Tony is trying to decide which flavor of gelato his wife would like best. She has never had gelato before, so Tony bases his decision on her favorite kind of ice cream. Tony is using a(n) _____ to make his decision.

A) frequency estimate
B) attribute substitution
C) base rate
D) availability heuristic

Question 21

Which of the following is TRUE if we consider the phrase, "Prejudice decreases as education increases"?

A) Prejudice positively covaries with education.
B) Participants are able to infer correctly whether this is a weak or strong relationship.
C) Prejudice negatively covaries with education.
D) We can accurately determine the personalities of people who are likely to show prejudice.

Question 22

Dual-process models state that people

A) have two ways of thinking: one is a fast and automatic process, whereas the other is slower but more accurate.
B) have two ways of thinking, one involved in heuristics and the other involved in anchoring.
C) have two ways of thinking, one involved in availability heuristics and the other involved in representative heuristics.
D) always take both the base rate and the diagnostic information into consideration when thinking about a situation.

Question 23

Studies indicate that participants

A) always neglect base-rate information.
B) overutilize base-rate information even if other compelling information is presented.
C) make sensible use of base-rate information if no other information is available.
D) tend to integrate base-rate information with diagnostic information.

Question 24

Participants tend NOT to use base-rate information if they are also given

A) diagnostic information.
B) the prior probabilities.
C) statistical information.
D) information about the random device used to select the test case.

Question 25

Someone who is insensitive to base rates is likely to have all of the following problems EXCEPT

A) a hard time estimating covariation.
B) inaccuracy at determining cause-and-effect relationship.
C) overreliance on the representative heuristic.
D) underuse of diagnostic information.

Question 26

If Tabitha believes that detective shows are more dramatic than hospital shows, then confirmation bias would lead her to do all of the following EXCEPT be more likely to

A) notice a detective show that is dramatic.
B) overlook a hospital show that is dramatic.
C) have memory schemata that include more examples of dramatic detective shows than dramatic hospital shows.
D) have memory schemata that include more examples of dramatic hospital shows than dramatic detective shows.

Question 27

In an experiment, participants were told of a previously unknown tribe living on a Pacific island. Only one member of this tribe had been observed so far, and he was found to be obese. When asked how likely it was that all members of the tribe were obese, participants were unwilling to extrapolate this information. This shows that participants

A) were using the representative heuristic.
B) had prior beliefs about these islanders.
C) are sometimes sensitive to the sample size and can take this into account when making a judgment.
D) are unwilling to make a judgment as they are wary of making an error.

Question 28

Presumably, people would choose to use _____ when making judgments that are not particularly important and _____ for more crucial decisions, but evidence suggests this is not the case.

A) System 1; System 2
B) System 2; System 1
C) heuristics; System 1
D) heuristics; System 2

Question 29

A base rate is defined as information

A) that helps us to identify which specific candidates have a target property.
B) about the broad likelihood of a particular type of event.
C) indicating the internal variability of a set or category.
D) that can be used to diagnose an individual category member.

Question 30

Descriptive information that indicates that you are likely to be a member of a category (or fit the stereotype) is referred to as

A) the base rate.
B) diagnostic information.
C) stereotype bias.
D) confirmation bias.

Question 31

When asked to judge covariation, participants

A) seem to lack the knowledge and skills needed for the task.
B) perform more accurately if they can supplement the data with their prior experience and knowledge.
C) can provide reasonably accurate estimates if they have no prior beliefs about the data.
D) do best if the relevant data are easily available to them.

Question 32

The term "illusory covariation" refers to an error in which

A) participants perceive an event as occurring far more often than it actually does.
B) participants perceive two variables as being somehow linked to each other when in fact they are not.
C) participants draw a conclusion on the basis of a biased or small sample of evidence.
D) participants refuse to change their minds even though the available evidence clearly challenges their belief.

Question 33

The text gives an example that juxtaposes Bart's claim that he has a great method for choosing lottery numbers because he used it and won once and Marge's claim that she has a great method that has worked for her 11 times. This example shows that

A) people will never use statistical knowledge.
B) people understand the risk associated with buying lottery tickets.
C) people's judgments are too often based on the opinions of others.
D) people understand that accidents may happen but do not happen repeatedly.

Question 34

People tend to be more alert and responsive to evidence that supports their preexisting notions and beliefs than to evidence that challenges them. This effect is called

A) confirmation bias.
B) stereotypy.
C) base-rate error.
D) the covariation law.

Question 35

Lucia reported to her father that she saw a hummingbird in their backyard. Her father, however, knows that hummingbirds are extremely rare in that part of the country. In this situation,

A) the diagnostic information confirms the base rate.
B) the diagnostic information points toward one conclusion but the base rate points toward a different conclusion.
C) the base rate is known but no diagnostic information is available.
D) there are two pieces of diagnostic information but no base-rate information.

Question 36

Illusory covariations can be documented in

A) novices, but only when the cases being judged are of low importance for the participants.
B) well-trained professionals, but only when the professionals are making judgments outside of their area of expertise.
C) novices but not in experts.
D) individuals who have years of training in the domain being judged.

Question 37

Data format seems to play an important role in decision making because

A) the correct format is more likely to trigger the necessary memory retrieval path.
B) certain formats, like frequencies, are more likely to trigger System 1
C) certain formats, like frequencies, are more likely to trigger System 2.
D) proportions are easiest to understand.

Question 38

Research into whether personality traits can be diagnosed by descriptions of ink blots has shown that

A) novices sometimes detect illusory covariations but experts do not.
B) both novices and experts are successful in finding true covariations.
C) novices are often better than experts at detecting true covariations as they are less likely to be affected by confirmation bias.
D) the pattern of observations that both experts and novices see is often not real but rather based on illusory covariations.

Question 39

The text suggests that illusory covariations arise from the fact that participants

A) base their covariation estimates only on a small sample of the data that are available to them.
B) are generally dogmatic and make their judgments with little regard for the data.
C) do not know how to compute covariation, so they use an estimation strategy that is little better than guessing.
D) do not know how to make these judgments, so performance improves once the participant gains some expertise.

Question 40

Fred is convinced that people who wear sandals cannot be trusted. People who wear shoes, though, seem trustworthy to Fred. This is a peculiar belief about

A) anchoring.
B) covariation.
C) availability.
D) representativeness.

Question 41

Solomon remembers how Jacob acted last weekend and the weekend before that. On the basis of this, Solomon is trying to figure out whether there is a pattern to Jacob's actions. Solomon is working on a problem of

A) deduction.
B) induction.
C) confirmation.
D) derivation.

Question 42

Nisbett has argued that participants do understand the basic principles of statistics but often fail to use their knowledge. Which of the following situations does NOT contain one of the triggers that leads to the use of statistical knowledge?

A) The role of chance or accident is prominent in the problem under scrutiny.
B) The participant is scrutinizing a problem that is of great personal importance, so he or she is highly motivated to reason carefully and well.
C) The problem under scrutiny makes clear that the available evidence is a sample of data drawn from a larger set of potential observations.
D) The problem being considered involves a situation for which the participant has background beliefs emphasizing the role of luck or chance.

Question 43

When thinking about the likelihood of events, humans are better able to make judgments based on information presented as _____ than as _____.

A) percentages; fractions
B) abstract ideas; concrete examples
C) frequencies; probabilities
D) probabilities; frequencies

Question 44

According to the work of Tversky and Kahneman (1987), people are _____ when dealing with potential losses, but are _____ when dealing with potential gains.

A) risk seeking; risk averse
B) risk averse; risk seeking
C) risk seeking; risk seeking
D) worried; excited

Question 45

Which of the following statements about the effects of emotion on decision making is NOT true?

A) People want to minimize regret.
B) Physiological changes can direct decision making.
C) People assume the worst and are thus overly cautious.
D) People tend to be bad at forecasting future emotions, and this influences current decision making.

Question 46

"All rectangles have four sides. All squares have four sides. Therefore all rectangles are squares." This incorrect statement is an example of

A) belief bias.
B) categorical syllogism.
C) belief perseverance.
D) deductive inference.

Question 47

You are reading a political blog and come across the following sentiment: "Politicians are liars. John Doe is a politician. Therefore, John Doe is a liar." You are most likely to judge this as logical if you

A) dislike politicians.
B) really like politicians.
C) are a Republican.
D) are a Democrat.

Question 48

Which of the following is correct regarding dual-process models?

A) Both System 1 and System 2 in the model provide a quick and efficient way of making a judgment.
B) When we know that a judgment is important, we put more emphasis on System 2 to ensure an accurate outcome.
C) System 2 is more likely to be used if people are given training or cued by the situation.
D) System 2 is more likely to be used in situations where people are distracted or tired.

Question 49

The four-card task provides an example of how

A) good we are at reasoning about syllogisms.
B) good we are at reasoning about conditional statements.
C) poor we are at reasoning about conditional statements.
D) poorly we perform on inductive tasks.

Question 50

The expected value of an option is dependent on

A) the sum of the probability of an outcome and the utility of the outcome.
B) the product of the probability of an outcome and the utility of the outcome.
C) the difference between the probability of an outcome and the utility of the outcome.
D) the difference between the pros and cons of an outcome.

Question 51

Background knowledge can lead to mistakes, but it can also provide a benefit if

A) the person is aware of heuristics.
B) the knowledge is about how the parts of the problem are related.
C) the person is very confident in his or her knowledge.
D) it contains descriptive information.

Question 52

Evidence from the four-card task suggests all of the following EXCEPT that

A) generally people are poor at solving this task.
B) changing the problem into something with a more real-world validity improves performance on this task.
C) as with inductive reasoning, performance on deductive tasks varies based on the form of the problem.
D) problem solving about conditional statements is difficult to improve.

Question 53

Training in statistics

A) can help us make use of quick, efficient heuristics rather than slower, more effortful thinking.
B) improves participants' ability to make judgments so that judgment errors will be less likely.
C) improves participants' ability to make judgments but only when they are trained in an abstract way.
D) provides many benefits but seems not to teach students how to make more accurate judgments.

Question 54

Brenda is terribly afraid of flying because she is certain the plane will crash. You know that the chances of a plane crash are exceedingly small and try to explain this to her. Given your knowledge of judgment and reasoning, describe the factors (i.e., judgment errors) that are contributing to her fear and give any tips that could help her overcome her fear.

Question 55

Compare and contrast System 1 and System 2 reasoning. Include in your discussion the benefits and drawbacks to each system, the instances in which each system would be used, and how changing the data format can lead to changes in use.

Question 56

You are asked to rate how likely it is that a student, Steve, will pass an upcoming exam. You are told that, in the past, the "pass" rate for this exam is 30%. Which of the following statements about your rating is MOST LIKELY to be true? You will:

A) use base rates in your decision.
B) ignore the base-rate information.
C) imply a cause-and-effect relationship between the pass rate and the student being judged.
D) say the chance of the student passing is 0.8.

Question 57

The law of large numbers implies that larger samples of data are less likely to show accidental patterns; therefore, larger samples are generally more informative. In making judgments about evidence, participants

A) seem to understand and respect this law.
B) ignore this law even though they do follow other principles of statistics.
C) follow this law only if they have been trained in statistics.
D) ignore this law in some situations but respect it in other situations.

Question 58

Studies indicate that training in statistics

A) has little impact on how participants make judgments outside of the statistics class..
B) improves participants' understanding of statistical principles but does not teach them how to apply the principles to actual cases.
C) helps participants make more accurate judgments, but only if they were explicitly encouraged to apply their statistical knowledge.
D) improves participants' performance in a variety of judgment problems.

Question 59

Marissa believes that clowns are evil. She meets two men who are very nice and then learns that they are clowns. Despite this, she does not adjust her belief and continues to think clowns are evil. This is called

A) confirmation bias.
B) deductive reasoning.
C) inductive reasoning.
D) belief perseverance.

Question 60

An inductive judgment is one in which a person

A) tries to make predictions about upcoming events on the basis of evidence already available.
B) tries to make a cause-and-effect judgment about an observed state of affairs.
C) begins with a general statement and asks what other specific claims follow from this.
D) begins with specific facts or observations and seeks to draw a general conclusion from them.

Question 61

Describe the four-card task. In your description, include the following components:
a. the basic task
b. the type of logical argument that governs the task
c. the typical performance rates and how those can be improved by changing components of the task

Question 62

Describe the ways that emotion can influence decision making. What tips would you give to a friend (or to yourself) to improve decision making under emotional duress?

Question 63

Molly is a Democrat, and she is certain that Republicans are evil and ruining the country. Discuss how tendencies like confirmation bias and belief perseverance contribute to her beliefs and her evaluation of new evidence.