Exam 11: Judgment and Reasoning

The term "covariation" refers to

If Tabitha believes that detective shows are more dramatic than hospital shows, then confirmation bias would lead her to do all of the following EXCEPT be more likely to

Many of us overestimate our own popularity. This could be because we surround ourselves with people who like us, rather than with people who do not. Therefore, it is easier for us to think of the names of people who like us than it is to think of the names of our enemies. This overestimation of popularity seems to derive from using

Participants are told, "Hospital A has an average of 45 births per day; Hospital B has an average of only 15 births per day." The participants are then asked, "Which hospital is more likely to have a day in which at least 60% of the babies born are female?" In answering the question, participants

Lucia reported to her father that she saw a hummingbird in their backyard. Her father, however, knows that hummingbirds are extremely rare in that part of the country. In this situation,

The text gives an example that juxtaposes Bart's claim that he has a great method for choosing lottery numbers because he used it and won once and Marge's claim that she has a great method that has worked for her 11 times. This example shows that

You are reading a political blog and come across the following sentiment: "Politicians are liars. John Doe is a politician. Therefore, John Doe is a liar." You are most likely to judge this as logical if you

Nisbett has argued that participants do understand the basic principles of statistics but often fail to use their knowledge. Which of the following situations does NOT contain one of the triggers that leads to the use of statistical knowledge?

Marissa believes that clowns are evil. She meets two men who are very nice and then learns that they are clowns. Despite this, she does not adjust her belief and continues to think clowns are evil. This is called

Illusory covariations can be documented in

Before reading about a depressed individual, participants are told that the case is not at all typical. This instruction will

Which of the following is NOT an example of a frequency judgment?

Tony is trying to decide which flavor of gelato his wife would like best. She has never had gelato before, so Tony bases his decision on her favorite kind of ice cream. Tony is using a(n) _____ to make his decision.

The availability heuristic

The law of large numbers implies that larger samples of data are less likely to show accidental patterns; therefore, larger samples are generally more informative. In making judgments about evidence, participants

Molly is a Democrat, and she is certain that Republicans are evil and ruining the country. Discuss how tendencies like confirmation bias and belief perseverance contribute to her beliefs and her evaluation of new evidence.

A base rate is defined as information

Solomon remembers how Jacob acted last weekend and the weekend before that. On the basis of this, Solomon is trying to figure out whether there is a pattern to Jacob's actions. Solomon is working on a problem of

Training in statistics

Brenda is terribly afraid of flying because she is certain the plane will crash. You know that the chances of a plane crash are exceedingly small and try to explain this to her. Given your knowledge of judgment and reasoning, describe the factors (i.e., judgment errors) that are contributing to her fear and give any tips that could help her overcome her fear.