Exam 7: Forecasting

The data for the number of guitars sold for the past 6 weeks are 25 units,20 units,25 units,25 units,20 units,and 18 units respectively.The time series appears to be relatively stable,without trend,seasonal,or cyclical effects; thus,a moving average model would be appropriate.Setting k = 3 the three-period moving average forecast for week 7 is ________.

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s). The table below shows the sales details of a kind of vegetable sold at a department store for each week. -Using the given data,determine the forecast for week 11.

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The table below shows the industrial lathe sales from the years 2000-2005.The forecaster uses the regression method to determine the forecast for the future. -For the given data,the value of MSE is ________.[Hint: Round the forecast values to 3 decimal places.]

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The sales details of a particular game are shown below.The value of k is set at 3. -Using the given data,calculate the value of the mean absolute deviation.

Given: A_t = the actual value of the time series at time t,F_t = the forecast value for time t,and n = the number of forecast values.Identify the formula used to calculate the mean absolute percentage error.

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The sales details for 6 weeks of a particular type of switches,called the "Twitch," are shown in the table below.The value of k is set at 2. -For the given data,identify the number of forecast values.

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The table below shows the car sales from the year 2002-2007.The forecaster assumes a smoothing constant of 0.8 and uses the exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for the future. -Using the given data,calculate the value of mean absolute percentage error.

The Holt-Winters multiplicative model is based on the equation ________.

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The table below shows the car sales from the year 2002-2007.The forecaster assumes a smoothing constant of 0.8 and uses the exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for the future. -Using the given data,determine the value of the mean absolute deviation.

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The table below shows the industrial lathe sales from the years 2000-2005.The forecaster uses the regression method to determine the forecast for the future. -For the data given above,identify the value of MAD.[Hint: Round the forecast values to 3 decimal places.]

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The sales details of a particular game are shown below.The value of k is set at 3. -For the given data,what is the value of the root mean square error?

In the first-order autoregressive model Y_i = a₀ + a₁Y_i-1+ _i,identify the nonautocorrelated random error term.

What is the Delphi method?

Briefly explain the seasonal additive model used in forecasting.

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The table below shows the industrial lathe sales from the years 2000-2005.The forecaster uses the regression method to determine the forecast for the future. -For the data given above,the forecast for the year 2003 is approximately close to ________.

The Holt-Winters additive model is based on the equation ________.

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The table below shows the sales of a gaming console for the first 6 months of the year 2011. The forecaster uses the weighted average model to determine the forecasts.He assumes a 40% weight for the most recent reading,30% weight for the second most recent reading,20% for the third most recent reading,and 10% for the fourth most recent reading. -Using the given data,determine the value of the root mean square error.

The Holt-Winters additive model differs from the Holt-Winters multiplicative model in that the Holt-Winters additive model ________.

In the double forecasting model F_{t + k} = a_t + b_tk,the value k denotes the trend in the model.

In historical analogy,the forecast is obtained by using a panel of experts,whose identities are typically kept confidential from one another,to respond to a sequence of questionnaires.