Exam 22: Real Options

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Explain the difference between the value of a project and the value of real options associated with a project.

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The value of a project is the present value of all the cash flows from a project. It is usually calculated using a discounted cash-flow method. The value of a real option on the project comes from the opportunity to change or modify the cash flow from the project.

A project is worth $12 million today without an abandonment option if the interest rate is 5 percent per year. Suppose the value of the project is either $18 million one year from today (if product demand is high)or $8 million (if product demand is low). It is possible to sell off the project for $10 million if product demand is low. Calculate the value of the abandonment option if the discount rate is 5 percent per year.

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A

A firm in the mining industry whose major assets are cash, equipment, and a closed facility may sell at a premium to the market value of its assets. This premium is most plausibly attributed to

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C

How does an option to wait or postpone a project add value to the project?

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If projects have implied options, then

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Briefly explain how abandonment value can be used to help determine project life.

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A project is worth $15 million today without an abandonment option. Suppose the value of the project is either $20 million one year from today (if product demand is high)or $10 million (if product demand is low). It is possible to sell off the project for $13 million if product demand is low. Calculate the value of the abandonment option if the discount rate is 5 percent per year.

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The option to make a follow-on investment is a put option.

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APV = NPV (without expansion option)+ value of the expansion option.

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The NPV of a new video game, Dexa 1, is −1.5 million after discounting all expected cash flows. However, if high demand in the market evolves, Dexa 2 is a possible follow-on opportunity in two years. In two years it will cost 10 million to start Dexa 2, which will produce 9 million of cash flow in year 2. N(d1)= 0.5785 and N(d2)= 0.1755. The annual interest rate is 11 percent and equals the risk-free rate. What is the Dexa 1 APV?

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Consider an electric utility that may use either coal or natural gas to generate electricity. Under which of the following conditions is co-firing equipment most valuable? Let ac be the annual standard deviation of coal prices, and let an be the annual standard deviation of natural gas prices and p the correlation between coal prices and natural gas prices.

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What are the four main types of real options?

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An electric utility plant that can operate on either oil or natural gas is an example of flexibility in production.

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Tech Com announces a major expansion into Internet services. This announcement causes the price of Tech Com stock to increase, but also causes an increase in the volatility of the stock price. Which of the following correctly identifies the impact of these changes on the price of Tech Com call options?

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Imagine that you are the producer of Harry Potter films. You are trying to decide whether to film the next two Harry Potter movies at the same time. If you film them both at once, you can save money on production costs, but you could lose a lot of money if the first one flops and no one goes to see the second one. Specifically, if you film them both at once, it will cost a total of $300 million, but if you film them separately, they will cost $200 million each. If the first one is successful, it will have revenues of $1 billion and the second one will have revenues of $1.5 billion. If the first one fails, it will only have revenues of $150 million and the second one will have revenues of only $50 million. If you decide to film them separately and the first one flops, you don't have to film the second one. The first film has a 50 percent chance of succeeding and a 50 percent chance of failing. Assume that all figures are given as present values (you do not need to do any additional discounting). Should you film both of them now or film them separately? Why?

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The discounted cash-flow (DCF)approach should be

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Permanently rejecting an investment today might not be a good choice because I.the size of the firm will decline; II.there are always errors in the estimation of NPVs; III.the project's real option value is negative; IV.the company is forgoing the option to make the investment in the future if economic and industry conditions change for the better

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Real options analysis can be used to link project life to the performance of the project.

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How does a large firm like Intel hold a natural real option on a new technology, whereas a smaller firm would not have the same option if they owned the same technology?

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An example of a real option is

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