Exam 6: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

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Construct a decision tree to identify the buyer's course of action that maximizes the expected profit earned by the chain from the purchase and subsequent sale of footballs in the coming year.

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Which of the following statements are true?

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Prior probabilities are sometimes called likelihoods,the probabilities that are influenced by information about the outcome of an earlier uncertainty.

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In the nomenclature of Bayes' Rule,which of the following are probabilities that are conditioned on information that is obtained?

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Should the credit union purchase the report if it costs $150?

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What is Bayes' Rule?

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The expected value of sample information (EVSI)is equal to

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In decision trees,probabilities are listed on probability branches.These probabilities are _____ events that have already been observed.

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In making decisions,we choose the decision with the largest expected monetary value at each node.

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Show that this decision maker is indifferent between gaining nothing and entering a risky situation with a gain of $80,000 (probability 1/3)and a loss of $10,000 (probability 2/3).

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In decision trees,monetary values _____ the end nodes.

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A risk profile from PrecisionTree lists

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Exponential utility has an adjustable parameter called risk tolerance.The risk tolerance parameter measures

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Generate a risk profile for each possible decision in this problem.Would this have any impact on your decision?

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In a single-stage decision problem,a single decision is made first,and then all uncertainty is resolved.

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The bank can thoroughly investigate the customer's credit record and obtain a favorable or unfavorable recommendation.If the credit report is perfectly reliable,what is the most the credit union should be willing to pay for the report?

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The expected value of perfect information (EVPI)is the most the decision maker would be willing to pay for the sample information.

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Construct a decision tree to help Southport identify the strategy that maximizes its expected profit for this investment.Make sure to label all decision and chance nodes and include appropriate costs,payoffs and probabilities.

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EMV criteria guarantee good outcomes.

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Mathematically,the utility function for risk adverse individuals is said to be _____ and/or _____.

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