Exam 12: Monte Carlo Simulation and Risk Analysis

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What are the benefits of a Risk Solver Platform sensitivity chart?

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Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. A B C D E F 1 Trance Electronics 2 3 Data 4 5 Market size 20,000,000 6 Unit (monthly Rx) revenue \ 120.00 7 Unit (monthly Rx) cost \ 50.00 8 Discount rate 8\% 9 10 Project costs 11 R\&D \ 750,000,000 12 Clinical Trials \ 100,000,000 13 Total Project Costs 14 15 Model 16 17 Year 1 2 3 4 5 18 Market growth factor 4\% 4\% 4\% 4\% 19 Market size 20 Market share growth rate 18\% 18\% 18\% 18\% 21 Market share 7\% 22 Sales 23 24 Annual revenue 25 Annual costs 26 Profit 27 Cumulative net profit 28 29 Net present value Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000. Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%. Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%. The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform. -What cumulative profit in the fifth year is likely to be realized with a probability of 0.50?

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The Risk Solver Platform chart shows the minimum, first quartile, median, third quartile, and maximum values in a data set graphically.

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Monte Carlo simulation is an inappropriate tool to analyze cash budgets because of the inherent uncertainty of the sales forecasts on which most cash budgets are based.

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Explain the process of running a simulation using Risk Solver Platform.

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Why is the ROUND function used in Excel?

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Uniform or triangular distributions are used in the absence of data.

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What is Monte Carlo simulation?

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Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. A B C D E F 1 Trance Electronics 2 3 Data 4 5 Market size 20,000,000 6 Unit (monthly Rx) revenue \ 120.00 7 Unit (monthly Rx) cost \ 50.00 8 Discount rate 8\% 9 10 Project costs 11 R\&D \ 750,000,000 12 Clinical Trials \ 100,000,000 13 Total Project Costs 14 15 Model 16 17 Year 1 2 3 4 5 18 Market growth factor 4\% 4\% 4\% 4\% 19 Market size 20 Market share growth rate 18\% 18\% 18\% 18\% 21 Market share 7\% 22 Sales 23 24 Annual revenue 25 Annual costs 26 Profit 27 Cumulative net profit 28 29 Net present value Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000. Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%. Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%. The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform. -With reference to the trend chart, which year shows the highest mean net cumulative profit?

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Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Consider the following spreadsheet for an outsourcing decision model. A B 1 OutsourcingDecision Model 2 3 Data 4 5 Manufactured in-house 6 Fixed cost \ 60,000 7 Unit variable cost \ 130 8 9 Purchased from supplier 10 Unit cost \ 165 11 12 Demand volume 1,000 13 14 Model 15 16 Total manufacturing cost 17 Total purchased cost 18 19 Difference 20 Decision We assume that the production (demand) volume is normally distributed with a mean of 1,000 and a standard deviation of 100. For the unit cost, select the triangular distribution. It has a minimum value of $150, most likely value of $165, and a maximum value of $190. The number of trials per simulation is equal to 5,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 1. Run the simulation and answer the following question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform. -What is the cost difference lower cutoff in thousands of dollars if the likelihood is 60%?

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Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Consider the following spreadsheet for an outsourcing decision model. A B 1 OutsourcingDecision Model 2 3 Data 4 5 Manufactured in-house 6 Fixed cost \ 60,000 7 Unit variable cost \ 130 8 9 Purchased from supplier 10 Unit cost \ 165 11 12 Demand volume 1,000 13 14 Model 15 16 Total manufacturing cost 17 Total purchased cost 18 19 Difference 20 Decision We assume that the production (demand) volume is normally distributed with a mean of 1,000 and a standard deviation of 100. For the unit cost, select the triangular distribution. It has a minimum value of $150, most likely value of $165, and a maximum value of $190. The number of trials per simulation is equal to 5,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 1. Run the simulation and answer the following question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform. -What is the value of mean obtained from the simulation results? [Hint: Choose the nearest answer]

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The Risk Solver Platform feature allows you to determine the influence that each uncertain model input has individually on an output variable based on its correlation with the output variable.

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A normal distribution has a limited range and can be skewed in either direction.

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Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. A B C D E F 1 Trance Electronics 2 3 Data 4 5 Market size 20,000,000 6 Unit (monthly Rx) revenue \ 120.00 7 Unit (monthly Rx) cost \ 50.00 8 Discount rate 8\% 9 10 Project costs 11 R\&D \ 750,000,000 12 Clinical Trials \ 100,000,000 13 Total Project Costs 14 15 Model 16 17 Year 1 2 3 4 5 18 Market growth factor 4\% 4\% 4\% 4\% 19 Market size 20 Market share growth rate 18\% 18\% 18\% 18\% 21 Market share 7\% 22 Sales 23 24 Annual revenue 25 Annual costs 26 Profit 27 Cumulative net profit 28 29 Net present value Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000. Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%. Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%. The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform. -With reference to the trend chart, which year shows the highest uncertainty in forecasting the future?

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Answer the following question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform (5000 trials per simulation; use the Latin Hypercube sampling method). Consider the spreadsheet for a Newsvendor Model. A B C D E 1 Newsvendor Model Historical Candy Sales \ 264.00 2 50 \ 264.00 3 Data 45 \ 264.00 4 40 \ 228.00 5 Sellingprice \ 18.00 46 \ 264.00 6 Cost \ 12.00 43 \ 255.00 7 Discount price \ 9.00 43 \ 255.00 8 46 \ 264.00 9 Model 42 \ 246.00 10 44 \ 264.00 11 Demand 44 43 \ 255.00 12 Purchase Quantity 44 47 \ 264.00 13 41 \ 237.00 14 Quantity Sold 41 \ 237.00 15 Surplus Quantity 45 \ 264.00 16 51 \ 264.00 17 Profit 43 \ 255.00 18 45 \ 264.00 19 42 \ 246.00 20 44 \ 264.00 21 48 \ 264.00 22 Average Profit -What is the value of mean profit?

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Which of the following is a parameter in the Normal Distribution Dialog of the Risk Solver Platform?

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Conduct Monte Carlo simulation using historical data and resampling techniques. Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Below is a spreadsheet for a hotel overbooking model. A B C D E 1 Hotel Overbooking Model Demand Probability 2 290 0.03 3 Data 295 0.05 4 300 0.08 5 Rooms av ailable 350 305 0.12 6 Price \ 120 310 0.15 7 Overbooking cost \ 100 315 0.20 8 320 0.15 9 Model 325 0.10 10 330 0.05 11 Reserv ation limit 350 335 0.04 12 Customer demand 320 340 0.02 13 Reservations made 345 0.01 14 Cancellations 15 15 Customer arrivals 16 17 Overbooked customers 18 Net revenue Assume that each reservation has a constant probability p = 0.04 of being cancelled. Answer the question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform. -Which of the following cells is defined as an output cell?

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Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Consider the following spreadsheet for an outsourcing decision model. A B 1 OutsourcingDecision Model 2 3 Data 4 5 Manufactured in-house 6 Fixed cost \ 60,000 7 Unit variable cost \ 130 8 9 Purchased from supplier 10 Unit cost \ 165 11 12 Demand volume 1,000 13 14 Model 15 16 Total manufacturing cost 17 Total purchased cost 18 19 Difference 20 Decision We assume that the production (demand) volume is normally distributed with a mean of 1,000 and a standard deviation of 100. For the unit cost, select the triangular distribution. It has a minimum value of $150, most likely value of $165, and a maximum value of $190. The number of trials per simulation is equal to 5,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 1. Run the simulation and answer the following question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform. -What is the expected loss determined from the simulation results?

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Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. A B C D E F 1 Trance Electronics 2 3 Data 4 5 Market size 20,000,000 6 Unit (monthly Rx) revenue \ 120.00 7 Unit (monthly Rx) cost \ 50.00 8 Discount rate 8\% 9 10 Project costs 11 R\&D \ 750,000,000 12 Clinical Trials \ 100,000,000 13 Total Project Costs 14 15 Model 16 17 Year 1 2 3 4 5 18 Market growth factor 4\% 4\% 4\% 4\% 19 Market size 20 Market share growth rate 18\% 18\% 18\% 18\% 21 Market share 7\% 22 Sales 23 24 Annual revenue 25 Annual costs 26 Profit 27 Cumulative net profit 28 29 Net present value Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000. Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%. Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%. The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform. -What is the expected value margin obtained from the simulation results of the net present value?

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If a simulation has multiple output variables that are related to one another, the distributions of all output variables can be viewed on a single Risk Solver Platform chart called a(n) .

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