Exam 9: Forecasting Techniques

Identify the components of simple linear regression models and discuss their applications Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The worldwide sales of cars from 1981-1990 are shown in the table below. Given: α = 0.2 and β = 0.15 (Hint: Use XLMiner) Year Units sold in thousands 1981 888 1982 900 1983 1000 1984 1200 1985 1100 1986 1300 1987 1250 1988 1150 1989 1100 1990 1200 -Which of the following equations is the trend line equation for the given data? (Note: the fitted model assumes that the years are numbered 1 through 10, not the actual dates.)

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The worldwide sales of cars from 1981-1990 are shown in the table below. Given: α = 0.2, γ = 0.05, and season length = 1. (Hint: Use XLMiner). Year Units sold in thousands 1 750 2 823 3 1034 4 1945 5 1556 6 1300 7 1346 8 1150 9 967 10 1200 -Determine the value of the mean absolute deviation using the Holt-Winters no-trend model for the given data.

The Holt-Winters additive model applies to time series whose amplitude increases or decreases over time.

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The details of the clock sales at a supermarket for the past 6 weeks are shown in the table below. The time series appears to be relatively stable, without trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects. The simple moving average value of k is set at 2. Week Units sold 1 88 2 44 3 54 4 65 5 72 6 85 -For the given data, the simple moving average mean absolute deviation is .

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The table provided below gives the sales details of the number of android smart phones at an electronic retail store for the past 6 weeks. The time series appears to be relatively stable, without trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects. (Hint: Optimize α value in 0.1 increments) Week Units sold 1 88 2 44 3 54 4 65 5 72 6 85 -In the linear trend equation, Ft+k = at + btk, at is known as the .

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The details of the clock sales at a supermarket for the past 6 weeks are shown in the table below. The time series appears to be relatively stable, without trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects. The simple moving average value of k is set at 2. Week Units sold 1 88 2 44 3 54 4 65 5 72 6 85 -If the smoothing constant is assumed to be 0.7, and setting F1 and F2 = A1, the exponential smoothing sales forecast for week 7 is approximately .

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The worldwide sales of cars from 1981-1990 are shown in the table below. Given: α = 0.2, γ = 0.05, and season length = 1. (Hint: Use XLMiner). Year Units sold in thousands 1 750 2 823 3 1034 4 1945 5 1556 6 1300 7 1346 8 1150 9 967 10 1200 -Which of the following is the value of the root mean square error for the given data?

What is simple exponential smoothing?

Identify the components of simple linear regression models and discuss their applications Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The worldwide sales of cars from 1981-1990 are shown in the table below. Given: α = 0.2 and β = 0.15 (Hint: Use XLMiner) Year Units sold in thousands 1981 888 1982 900 1983 1000 1984 1200 1985 1100 1986 1300 1987 1250 1988 1150 1989 1100 1990 1200 -For the given data, what is the sales forecast for the year 1992 (in thousands)?

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The table provided below gives the sales details of the number of android smart phones at an electronic retail store for the past 6 weeks. The time series appears to be relatively stable, without trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects. (Hint: Optimize α value in 0.1 increments) Week Units sold 1 88 2 44 3 54 4 65 5 72 6 85 -What is the forecasted value for the 3rd week?

Explain the different types of Holt-Winters models used in forecasting.

Identify the components of simple linear regression models and discuss their applications Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The worldwide sales of cars from 1981-1990 are shown in the table below. Given: α = 0.2 and β = 0.15 (Hint: Use XLMiner) Year Units sold in thousands 1981 888 1982 900 1983 1000 1984 1200 1985 1100 1986 1300 1987 1250 1988 1150 1989 1100 1990 1200 -Using the double exponential smoothing, find the value of the root mean square error for the given data.

Before launching a new line of toys, Toys Inc. used the method of historical analogy to obtain a forecast. In this scenario, Toys Inc.:

The Delphi method used for forecasting:

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The table provided below gives the sales details of the number of android smart phones at an electronic retail store for the past 6 weeks. The time series appears to be relatively stable, without trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects. (Hint: Optimize α value in 0.1 increments) Week Units sold 1 88 2 44 3 54 4 65 5 72 6 85 -What is the forecasted value for the 7th week?

Indicators are measures that are believed to influence the behavior of a variable an individual wishes to forecast.

Identify the formula used to calculate the root mean square error over a range of forecasted values, if the actual value of the time series at time t and the forecast value for time t are denoted by At and Ft respectively.

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The details of the clock sales at a supermarket for the past 6 weeks are shown in the table below. The time series appears to be relatively stable, without trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects. The simple moving average value of k is set at 2. Week Units sold 1 88 2 44 3 54 4 65 5 72 6 85 -Using the data, determine the value of the simple moving average root mean square error.

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The table provided below gives the sales details of the number of android smart phones at an electronic retail store for the past 6 weeks. The time series appears to be relatively stable, without trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects. (Hint: Optimize α value in 0.1 increments) Week Units sold 1 88 2 44 3 54 4 65 5 72 6 85 -What is the difference between the forecasted and the actual value for the 3rd week?

Explain the significance of using double moving average and double exponential smoothing models.