Exam 10: Project Analysis

Firms that use break-even on an accounting basis are really losing the opportunity cost of capital on their investments.

Petroleum Inc. owns a lease to extract crude oil from sea. It is considering the construction of a deep-sea oil rig at a cost of $50 million (I0) and is expected to remain constant. The price of oil is $50/bbl and the extraction costs are $20/bbl. The quantity of oil Q = 200,000 bbl per year forever. The risk-free rate is 10% per year which is also the cost of capital (Ignore taxes). Suppose the oil price is uncertain and can be $70/bbl or $40/bbl next year. If the project if postponed by one year, calculate the value of the option to wait for one year: (approximately)

Firms often calculate a project's break-even sales using book earnings. Generally, break- even sales based on NPV is:

Briefly discuss various real options associated with capital budgeting projects.

The break-even point in terms of NPV is usually lower than the break-even point on an accounting basis.

Projects with high fixed costs have lower break-even points.

A project has an initial investment of $150. You have come up with the following estimates of revenues and costs. Calculate the NPV assuming that cash flow and perpetuities. (No taxes.) (Cost of capital = 10%) Pessimistic Most Likely Optimistic Total revenues +30 +50 65 Total costs -25 -20 -15

You are given the following data for year-1. Revenue = $43; Total costs = $30; Depreciation = $3; Tax rate = 30%. Calculate the operating cash flow for the project for year-1)

A project requires an initial investment in equipment of $90,000 and then requires an investment in working capital of $10,000 at the beginning (t = 0). The project is expected to produce sales revenues of $120,000 for three years. Manufacturing costs are estimated to be 60% of the revenues. The assets are depreciated using straight-line depreciation. At the end of the project, the firm can sell the equipment for $10,000. The corporate tax rate is 30% and the cost of capital is 15%. What would the NPV if the discount rate were higher by 10%?

Generally, the simulation models for projects are developed using a:

The following are drawbacks of sensitivity analysis except:

Petroleum Inc. owns a lease to extract crude oil from sea. It is considering the construction of a deep-sea oil rig at a cost of $50 million (I0) and is expected to remain constant. The price of oil is $50/bbl and the extraction costs are $20/bbl. The quantity of oil Q = 200,000 bbl per year forever. The risk-free rate is 10% per year, which is also the cost of capital (Ignore Taxes). Calculate the NPV to invest today.

A project requires an initial investment in equipment of $90,000 and then requires an investment in working capital of $10,000 at the beginning (t = 0). The project is expected to produce sales revenues of $120,000 for three years. Manufacturing costs are estimated to be 60% of the revenues. The assets are depreciated using straight-line depreciation. At the end of the project, the firm can sell the equipment for $10,000. The corporate tax rate is 30% and the cost of capital is 15%. Cash flows from the project are:

Hammer Company proposes to invest $6 million in a new type of hammer-making equipment. The fixed costs are $1.0 million per year. The equipment is expected to last for five years. The manufacturing cost per hammer is $1 and the selling price per hammer is $6. Calculate the break-even volume per year. (Ignore taxes.)

After the completion of project analysis, the final decision on the project would be from:

Discuss the importance of conducting post audits.

A project requires an initial investment in equipment of $90,000 and then requires an investment in working capital of $10,000 at the beginning (t = 0). The project is expected to produce sales revenues of $120,000 for three years. Manufacturing costs are estimated to be 60% of the revenues. The assets are depreciated using straight-line depreciation. At the end of the project, the firm can sell the equipment for $10,000. The corporate tax rate is 30% and the cost of capital is 15%. What would the NPV of the project be if the revenues were higher by 10% and the costs were 65% of the revenues?

Indicate some of the problems associated with capital investment process.

Abandonment option is a call option, while the option to expand is a put option.

The Consumer- Mart Company is going to introduce a new consumer product. If brought to market without research about consumer tastes the firm believes that there is a 60% chance that the product will be successful. If successful, the project has a NPV = $500,000. If the product is a failure (40%) and withdrawn from the market, then NPV = -$100,000. A consumer survey will cost $60,000 and delay the introduction by one year. If the survey is successful, then there is an 80% chance of consumer acceptance, in which case the NPV = $500,000. If, on the other hand the survey is a failure, then NPV = -$100,000. The discount rate is 10%. By how much does the marketing survey change the expected net present value of the project? (approximately)