Exam 10: Project Analysis

Explain the usefulness of decision trees in project analysis.

Briefly discuss the usefulness of Monte Carlo simulation in project analysis.

Generally, postaudits for projects are conducted: I. to identify problems that need fixing II. to check the accuracy of forecasts III. to come up with questions that should have been asked before the project was undertaken

In drawing a decision tree, a square represents a decision point, and a triangle represents a decision point for fate.

Calculator Company proposes to invest $5 million in a new calculator making plant. Fixed costs are $2 million a year. A calculator costs $5/unit to manufacture and can be sold for $20/unit. If the plant lasts for 3 years and the cost of capital is 12%, what is the approximate break-even level (accounting) of annual sales? (Assume no taxes.)(approximately)

KMW Inc. sells a finance textbook for $150 each. The variable cost per book is $30 and the fixed cost per year is $30,000. The process of creating a textbook costs $150,000 and the average book has a life span of 3 years. Using straight line depreciation and a tax rate of 25%, what is the economic or present value break even number of books that must be sold given a discount rate of 12%?

You are planning to produce a new action figure called "Hillary". However, you are very uncertain about the demand for the product. If it is a hit, you will have net cash flows of $50 million per year for 3 years (starting next year). If it fails, you will only have net cash flows of $10 million per year for 2 years (starting next year). There is an equal chance that it will be a hit or failure (probability = 50%). You will not know whether it is a hit or a failure until the first year's cash flows are in. You have to spend $80 million immediately for equipment and the rights to produce the figure. If you can sell your equipment for $60 million once the first year's cash flows are received, calculate the value of the abandonment option. (The discount rate is 10%)

Briefly explain timing options.

Why is sensitivity analysis less realistic than Monte Carlo Simulation?

Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis generally: I. assumes that firms hold assets passively when it invests in a project II. considers opportunities to expand a project if the project is successful III. considers opportunities to abandon a project if the project is a failure

You are planning to produce a new action figure called "Hillary". However, you are very uncertain about the demand for the product. If it is a hit, you will have net cash flows of $50 million per year for 3 years (starting next year). If it fails, you will only have net cash flows of $10 million per year for 2 years (starting next year). There is an equal chance that it will be a hit or failure (probability = 50%). You will not know whether it is a hit or a failure until the first year's cash flows are in. You have to spend $80 million immediately for equipment and the rights to produce the figure. If the discount rate is 10%, calculate the NPV without the abandonment option.

Monte Carlo simulation is a tool for considering all possible combinations of variables.