Exam 10: Forecasting Financial Statements

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If a firm competes in a capital-intensive industry with excess capacity,all of the following are true except:

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All of the following are true regarding the key principles of forecasting except:

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As a firm progresses through the decline life-cycle stage,what type of flexible account will it be more likely to use to balance the balance sheet?

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Card Sharks, Inc. Card Sharks, Inc. sells baseball cards and other memorabilia. The company tries to maintain a cash balance equivalent to approximately 30 days of sales. Sales in 2011 amounted to $352,412 and the company expects growth in 2012 of 30% and in 2013 of 35%. -Given the information provided about Card Sharks,what is the company's 2013 projected annual sales?

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Repair Specialists is a leading retailer of home improvement products.It operates large warehouse-style stores.Despite declining sales and difficult economic conditions in 2009 and 2010,Repair Specialists continued to invest in new stores.The following table provides summary data for Repair Specialists. Repair Specialists (amounts in millions except number of stores) Number of stores 2,234 2,274 Sales revenues \ 77,349 \ 71,288 Inventory \ 11,731 \ 10,673 Capital expenditures, net \ 3,558 \ 1,847 Required: a.Use the preceding data for Repair Specialists to compute average revenues per store, capital spending per new store,and ending inventory per store in 2010. b.Assume that Repair Specialists will add 100 new stores by the end of Year1.Use the data from 2010 to project Year 1 sales revenues,capital spending,and ending inventory.Assume that each new store will be open for business for an average of one-half year in Year1.For simplicity,assume that in Year 1,Repair Specialists' sales revenues will grow,but only because it will open new stores.

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One problem caused by using turnover ratios to calculate asset balances is that it can lead to volatility in projected ending balances.What might an analyst do to reduce the "sawtooth" pattern caused by using turnover ratios?

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The first step in the forecasting game plan is to project sales and other other operating activities.Sales numbers are determined by both a volume component and price component.Projecting prices depends on factors specific to the firm and its industry that might affect demand and price elasticity.For the following types of firms discuss whether it would be likely that the firm would be able to raise future prices: a.A firm in a capital-intensive industry that is expected to operate near capacity for the near future. b.A firm in an industry that is expected to experience numerous technological improvements. c.A firm with products which are transitioning from the growth to maturity phase of the product life cycle. d.A firm that has established a well known brand name and image.

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Financial statement forecasts rely on additivity within financial statements and articulation across financial statements.Given this information sales growth forecasts will most likely affect growth in

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Saunders Corporation manufactures consumer electronics products.Selected income statement data for 2009 and 2010 follow (amounts in millions of dollars): Saunders Corporation (amaunts in 2009 2010 millions of dollars) Sales 8,296 8,871 Cast af Gonds Sold (5,890) (6,290) Selling and Adrinistrative Eagenses (1,788) (1,714) Operating Incame befare Income Tares 618 867 Required: a.The analyst can sometimes estimate the variable cost as a percentage of sales for a particular cost (for example,cost of goods sold)by dividing the amount of the change in the cost item between two years by the amount of the change in sales for those two years.The analyst can then multiply total sales by the variable-cost percentage to determine the total variable cost.Subtracting the variable cost from the total cost yields the fixed cost component for that particular cost item.Follow this procedure to determine the cost structure (fixed cost plus variable cost as a percentage of sales)for cost of goods sold for Saunders. b.Repeat requirement a.for selling and administrative expenses. c.Saunders Corporation discloses that it expects sales to grow at the following percentages in future years: Year 1,12 percent;Year 2,10 percent;Year 3,8 percent;Year 4,6 percent.Project sales,cost of goods sold,selling and administrative expenses,and operating income before income taxes for Saunders for Year 1 to Year 4 using the cost structure amounts derived in requirements a.and b. d.Compute the ratio of operating income before income taxes to sales for Year 1 through Year 4. e.Interpret the changes in the ratio computed in requirement d.in light of the expected changes in sales.

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Financial statement forecasts are important analysis tools because forecasts of ______________________________ play a central role in valuation and many other financial decision contexts.

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Glad Rags,Inc.sells women's clothes.Provided below is selected financial statement information: Glad Rags,Inc.sells women's clothes.Provided below is selected financial statement information:     Required: a.Compute the inventory turnover ratio for 2010. b.Clothes,Inc.projects that sales will grow at a compound rate of 7% per year for years 2011-2013 and that the cost of goods sold to sales percentage will equal that realized in 2010.Compute the projected implied level of inventory at the end of 2011 to 2013. Required: a.Compute the inventory turnover ratio for 2010. b.Clothes,Inc.projects that sales will grow at a compound rate of 7% per year for years 2011-2013 and that the cost of goods sold to sales percentage will equal that realized in 2010.Compute the projected implied level of inventory at the end of 2011 to 2013.

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Which of the following statements does not apply to preventing "garbage in,garbage out" when implementing a forecasting game plan?

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To ensure that the financial statements articulate,it is important that the change in the cash balance on the balance sheet each year agrees with

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To develop forecasts of individual assets,the analyst must first link historical growth rates for individual assets to historical growth rates in ____________________ and other activity-based drivers.

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Projecting sales price changes depends on factors specific to the firm and its industry that might affect demand and price elasticity.Which of the following companies would most likely not be able to increase prices in the near future?

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Sparky's Sparky's sells auto parts. Provided below is selected financial information from the company's 2012 annual report:  Sparky’s Selected Financial Statement data \text { Sparky's Selected Financial Statement data } Fiscalyear end 2012 2011 (amounts in thousands of dollars) Net sales \ 125,410 \ 106,380 Cost of Goods Sold -104,090 - Grass Prafit \ 21,320 \ 17,021 Irventory \ 31,353 \ 30,850 -Sparky's forecasts that sales will grow by 25% in 2013 and that its cost of goods sold to sales ratio will be the same in 2013 as it was in 2012.If these assumptions prove correct and Sparky's inventory turnover ratio for 2013 is 4.5 what will be the level of inventory at the end of 2013?

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Simmons Company These data represent a summary of your first-iteration forecast amounts for Year1.Simmons uses dividends as a flexible financial account. Year + Operating Income \ 58 Interest Expense 8 Income before Tax \ 50 Tax Provision (20.0 percent effective tax rate) 10 Net Income \ 40 Total Assets \ 200 Accrued Liabilities \ 43 Long-Term Debt \ 80 Common Stock, at par \ 20 Retained Earnings (at the beginning of Year 1) \ 34 A.See the information for Simmons Company. Compute the amount of dividends you can assume that Simmons will pay in order to balance your projected balance sheet.Present the projected balance sheet. B.See the information for Simmons Company. Now assume that Simmons pays common shareholders a dividend of $25 in Year +1.Also assume that Simmons uses long-term debt as a flexible financial account,increasing borrowing when it needs capital and paying down debt when it generates excess capital.For simplicity,assume that Simmons pays 10.0 percent interest expense on the ending balance in long-term debt for the year and that interest expense is tax deductible at Simmons' average tax rate of 20.0 percent. Present the projected income statement and balance sheet for Year +1.(Hint: Because of the circularity between interest expense,net income,and debt,several iterations may be needed to balance the projected balance sheet and to have the projected balance sheet articulate with net income.You may find it helpful to program a spreadsheet to work the iterative computations.)

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Card Sharks, Inc. Card Sharks, Inc. sells baseball cards and other memorabilia. The company tries to maintain a cash balance equivalent to approximately 30 days of sales. Sales in 2011 amounted to $352,412 and the company expects growth in 2012 of 30% and in 2013 of 35%. -Given the information provided about Card Sharks,what is the company's 2013 projected cash balance?

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Arco is an integrated manufacturer in capital-intensive industry.Nuwak manufactures more commodity-level products in the same industry at the lower end of the market and uses less capital-intensive processes.The following data describe sales and cost of products sold for both firms for Years 3 and 4. Arco is an integrated manufacturer in capital-intensive industry.Nuwak manufactures more commodity-level products in the same industry at the lower end of the market and uses less capital-intensive processes.The following data describe sales and cost of products sold for both firms for Years 3 and 4.     Industry analysts anticipate the following annual changes in sales for the next five years: Year +1,5 percent increase;Year +2,10 percent increase;Year +3,20 percent increase;Year +4,10 percent decrease;Year +5,20 percent decrease. Required: a.The analyst can sometimes estimate the variable cost as a percentage of sales for a particular cost (for example,cost of products sold)by dividing the amount of the change in the cost item between two years by the amount of the change in sales for those two years.The analyst can then multiply the variable-cost percentage times sales to estimate the total variable cost.Subtracting the variable cost from the total cost yields an estimate of the fixed cost for that particular cost item.Follow this procedure to estimate the manufacturing cost structure (variable cost as a percentage of sales,total variable costs,and total fixed costs)for cost of products sold for both Arco and Nuwak in Year 4. b.Discuss the structure of manufacturing cost (that is,fixed versus variable)for each firm in light of the manufacturing process and type of product produced. c.Using the analysts' forecasts of sales changes,compute the projected sales,cost of products sold,gross profit,and gross margin (gross profit as a percentage of sales) of each firm for Year +1 through Year +5. d.Why do the levels and variability of the gross margin percentages differ for these two firms for Year +1 through Year +5? Industry analysts anticipate the following annual changes in sales for the next five years: Year +1,5 percent increase;Year +2,10 percent increase;Year +3,20 percent increase;Year +4,10 percent decrease;Year +5,20 percent decrease. Required: a.The analyst can sometimes estimate the variable cost as a percentage of sales for a particular cost (for example,cost of products sold)by dividing the amount of the change in the cost item between two years by the amount of the change in sales for those two years.The analyst can then multiply the variable-cost percentage times sales to estimate the total variable cost.Subtracting the variable cost from the total cost yields an estimate of the fixed cost for that particular cost item.Follow this procedure to estimate the manufacturing cost structure (variable cost as a percentage of sales,total variable costs,and total fixed costs)for cost of products sold for both Arco and Nuwak in Year 4. b.Discuss the structure of manufacturing cost (that is,fixed versus variable)for each firm in light of the manufacturing process and type of product produced. c.Using the analysts' forecasts of sales changes,compute the projected sales,cost of products sold,gross profit,and gross margin (gross profit as a percentage of sales) of each firm for Year +1 through Year +5. d.Why do the levels and variability of the gross margin percentages differ for these two firms for Year +1 through Year +5?

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Financial statement forecasts rely on additivity within financial statements and articulation across financial statements.Given this information forecasts of future growth in inventory will most likely affect growth in

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