Exam 5: International Parity Relationships and Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates

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Which statement about real exchange rates is not true?

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C

The 9-months inflation rate in Great Britain is expected to be 4% p.a.,and the 9-months inflation rate in Switzerland is predicted to be 6% p.a.Assume that the parity conditions hold. a)By what percentage rate do you expect the Swiss franc to appreciate (depreciate)with respect to the British pound over the next nine months,based on purchasing power parity? b)If the spot rate is pound 0.5/SF,what is the expected spot exchange rate between the Swiss franc and the British pound in nine months?

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a)ef = (1.03/1.045)- 1 = -0.014 or a 1.4% depreciation of the Swiss franc
b)St + 1 = 0.5(1.03/1.045)= pound 0.4928/SF

Canada's competitive position will:

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Suppose that the annual interest rate is 5.0 percent in the United States and 3.5 percent in Germany, and that the spot exchange rate is $1.12/€ and the forward exchange rate, with one-year maturity, is $1.16/€. Assume that an arbitrager can borrow up to $1,000,000 or €892,857 (which is the equivalent of $1,000,000 at the spot exchange rate of $1.12/€). -The above mentioned scenario:

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According to the fundamental approach,if all of the regression coefficients are already estimated,all of the following matters in the exchange rate determination except:

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The main approaches to forecasting exchange rates are:

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When Interest Rate Parity (IRP)holds between two different countries X and Y,your decision to invest your money will:

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The 9-months inflation rate in Great Britain is expected to be 4% p.a.,and the 9-months inflation rate in Switzerland is predicted to be 6% p.a.The real interest rate is 3% in Great Britain.Assume that the parity conditions hold. a)What is the nominal interest rate in Switzerland? b)What is the nine-month forward rate of the Swiss franc with respect to the British pound? c)If the inflation rates are expected to stay unchanged over the next two years,what is the expected spot exchange rate between the British pound and the Swiss franc in two years?

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Suppose that the annual interest rate is 5.0 percent in the United States and 3.5 percent in Germany, and that the spot exchange rate is $1.12/€ and the forward exchange rate, with one-year maturity, is $1.16/€. Assume that an arbitrager can borrow up to $1,000,000 or €892,857 (which is the equivalent of $1,000,000 at the spot exchange rate of $1.12/€). -If the annual inflation rate is 5.5 percent in the United States and 4 percent in the U.K.,and the dollar depreciated against the pound by 3 percent,then the real exchange rate,assuming that PPP initially held,is:

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Suppose that the annual interest rate is 5.0 percent in the United States and 3.5 percent in Germany, and that the spot exchange rate is $1.12/€ and the forward exchange rate, with one-year maturity, is $1.16/€. Assume that an arbitrager can borrow up to $1,000,000 or €892,857 (which is the equivalent of $1,000,000 at the spot exchange rate of $1.12/€). -Covered interest arbitrage would not be possible if the forward rate would be:

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The international Fisher effect is the same as the:

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Suppose that the two-months interest rate is 8.0 percent per annum in the Canada and 7.0 percent per annum in France,and that the spot exchange rate is $1.50/€ and the forward exchange rate,with one-year maturity,is $1.50/€.Assume that an arbitrager can borrow up to $1,000,000 or €666,666. a)What kind of arbitrage is possible? b)Determine the arbitrage profit that can be made. c)What would the French interest rate have to be so that there would be no arbitrage opportunity?

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The forward expectations parity states that:

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Suppose that the two-months interest rate is 6.0 percent per annum in the United States and 7.0 percent per annum in Germany,and that the spot exchange rate is $1.12/€ and the forward exchange rate,with two-months maturity,is $1.10/€.Assume that an arbitrager can borrow up to $1,000,000 or €892,857. a)What kind of arbitrage is possible? b)Determine the arbitrage profit that can be made. c)What would the forward rate have to be so that there would be no arbitrage opportunity?

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Interest Rate Parity (IRP)is best defined as:

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Suppose that the annual interest rate is 5.0 percent in the United States and 3.5 percent in Germany, and that the spot exchange rate is $1.12/€ and the forward exchange rate, with one-year maturity, is $1.16/€. Assume that an arbitrager can borrow up to $1,000,000 or €892,857 (which is the equivalent of $1,000,000 at the spot exchange rate of $1.12/€). -The net cash flow in one year is

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Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)theory states that:

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Assume the current $/£ exchange rate is 1.7 $/£ and 1-year forward exchange rate is 1.68$/£.The risk-free interest rates in US and UK are 4% and 6% respectively.Is there an arbitrage opportunity?

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International Fisher Effect connects the expected depreciation or appreciation of the currency with:

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PPP does not hold well because of the following except:

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