Exam 5: International Parity Relationships and Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates

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Deviations from interest rate parity exist for all of the following reasons except:

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Uncovered interest rate parity:

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You have the following information:  today’s spot $.6850/CS6 months forward rate $.7100/C$\begin{array}{ll}\text { today's spot } & \$ .6850 / \mathrm{CS} \\6 \text { months forward rate } & \$ .7100 / \mathrm{C \$}\end{array} expected inflation rate in the U.S.: 4% 4 \% p.a. expected inflation rate in Canada: 2% 2 \% p.a. nominal interest rate in the U.S: 6% 6 \% p.a. You are asked to forecast the spot exchange rate between the Canadian dollar and the U.S.dollar in six months. a)What is your forecast based on purchasing power parity? b)What is your forecast based on the forward expectations parity? c)Based on the Fisher effect,what should be the real interest rate in Canada? d)Why are the two forecasts in a and b different?

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Germany has a higher rate of inflation than Japan.The nominal exchange rate is constant.In this scenario,which of the following statement is true?

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If the PPP is satisfied then:

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Covered Interest Arbitrage (CIA)activities will result in:

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Assume the current $/£ exchange rate is 1.7 $/£ and 1-year forward exchange rate is 1.68$/£.The risk-free interest rates at which you can invest in US and UK are 4% and 6% respectively.However,since you do not have a very good credit rating,you can borrow funds only at higher rates.Namely,you can borrow $s at 5% and you can borrow £s at 7%.Is there an arbitrage opportunity?

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When Interest Rate Parity (IRP)does not hold:

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If foreign exchange markets are efficient,all of the following will hold except:

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If U.S.nominal interest rate is lower than U.K.interest rate (assuming real interest rate stays same between the countries),you can say that:

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