Exam 14: Time Series Analysis

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A quadratic trend equation was estimated from monthly sales of trucks in the United States from July 2006 to July 2011. The estimated trend is yt = 106 + 1.03t + 0.048t2, where yt units are in thousands. From this trend, how many trucks would be sold in July 2012?

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Increasing the smoothing constant α increases the weight assigned to the most recent observation.

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The shape of the fitted exponential model yt = 256e-.07t is always declining.

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Regression analysis can be used for forecasting monthly time-series data using a trend variable and 11 binary predictors (one for each month except omitting one month).

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A trend line has been fitted to a company's annual sales. The trend is given by yt = 50 + 5t, where t is the time index (t = 1, 2, …, n) and yt is annual sales (in millions of dollars). The implication of this trend line is:

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Using the first observed data value is a common way of initializing the forecasts in the exponential smoothing model.

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Which is a time series?

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If the fitted annual trend for a stock price is yt = 27e0.213t, then:

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A quadratic trend equation yt = 900 + 80t - 5t2 was fitted to a company's sales. This result implies that the sales trend:

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The shape of the fitted quadratic model yt = 324 - 42t - 1.3t2 is declining, then rising.

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The fitted annual sales trend is Yt = 187.3e-.047t. On average, sales are:

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If we fit a linear trend to 10 observations on time-series data that are growing exponentially, then it is most likely that:

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Moving averages are most useful for irregular data with no clear trend.

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The shape of the fitted exponential model yt = 256e-.07t is rising at first, then declining.

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