Question 1

An example of a time series data set is one for which the:

Accepted Answer

A)  data would be collected for a given firm for several consecutive periods (e.g.,months). 
B)  data would be collected for several different firms at a single point in time. 
C)  regression analysis comes from data randomly taken from different points in time. 
D)  use of regression analysis would impossible in time series. 
E) data is created from a random number generation program. 
A)  data would be collected for a given firm for several consecutive periods (e.g.,months). 
B)  data would be collected for several different firms at a single point in time. 
C)  regression analysis comes from data randomly taken from different points in time. 
D)  use of regression analysis would impossible in time series. 
E) data is created from a random number generation program. A

Question 2

Variations in a time-series forecast can be caused by:

Accepted Answer

A)  cyclical variations 
B)  secular trends 
C)  seasonal effects 
D)  a and b only 
E)  a,b,and c 
A)  cyclical variations 
B)  secular trends 
C)  seasonal effects 
D)  a and b only 
E)  a,b,and c E

Question 3

All of the following are criteria used to select a forecasting technique EXCEPT:

Accepted Answer

A)  ​the accuracy required of the forecasting model 
B)  ​the time required to complete the model 
C)  ​the complexity of the relationships being forecast 
D)  ​the cost associated with developing the forecasting model 
E)  ​all of these are criteria used to select a forecasting technique 
A)  ​the accuracy required of the forecasting model 
B)  ​the time required to complete the model 
C)  ​the complexity of the relationships being forecast 
D)  ​the cost associated with developing the forecasting model 
E)  ​all of these are criteria used to select a forecasting technique B

Question 4

If two alternative economic models are offered,other things equal,we would

Accepted Answer

A)  tend to pick the one with the lowest R2. 
B)  select the model that is the most expensive to estimate. 
C)  pick the model that was the most complex. 
D)  select the model that gave the most accurate forecasts 
E)  all of the above 
A)  tend to pick the one with the lowest R2. 
B)  select the model that is the most expensive to estimate. 
C)  pick the model that was the most complex. 
D)  select the model that gave the most accurate forecasts 
E)  all of the above

Question 5

Simplified trend models are generally appropriate for predicting the turning points in an economic time series.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

For studying demand relationships for a proposed new product that no one has ever used before,what would be the best method to use?

Accepted Answer

A)  ordinary least squares regression on historical data 
B)  market experiments,where the price is set differently in two markets 
C)  consumer surveys,where potential customers hear about the product and are asked their opinions 
D)  double log functional form regression model 
E)  all of the above are equally useful in this case 
A)  ordinary least squares regression on historical data 
B)  market experiments,where the price is set differently in two markets 
C)  consumer surveys,where potential customers hear about the product and are asked their opinions 
D)  double log functional form regression model 
E)  all of the above are equally useful in this case

Question 7

The variation in an economic time-series which is caused by major expansions or contractions usually of greater than a year in duration is known as:

Accepted Answer

A)  secular trend 
B)  cyclical variation 
C)  seasonal effect 
D)  unpredictable random factor 
E)  none of the above 
A)  secular trend 
B)  cyclical variation 
C)  seasonal effect 
D)  unpredictable random factor 
E)  none of the above

Question 8

In the first-order exponential smoothing model,the new forecast is equal to a weighted average of the old forecast and the actual value in the most recent period.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

The use of quarterly data to develop the forecasting model Yt = a +bYt−1 is an example of which forecasting technique?

Accepted Answer

A)  Barometric forecasting 
B)  Time-series forecasting 
C)  Survey and opinion 
D)  Econometric methods based on an understanding of the underlying economic variables involved 
E)  Input-output analysis 
A)  Barometric forecasting 
B)  Time-series forecasting 
C)  Survey and opinion 
D)  Econometric methods based on an understanding of the underlying economic variables involved 
E)  Input-output analysis

Question 10

Regarding forecasting,which of the following statements is NOT true?

Accepted Answer

A)  ​Operations managers need sales forecasts to plan future production. 
B)  ​Financial managers need estimates of future sales revenues,disbursements & capital expenditures in order to plan effectively. 
C)  ​Forecasts of credit conditions are needed to plan the cash needs of the firm. 
D)  ​Public administrators and managers of NFP corporations need not forecast,since they need not make a profit. 
E)  ​Both c and d are false. 
A)  ​Operations managers need sales forecasts to plan future production. 
B)  ​Financial managers need estimates of future sales revenues,disbursements & capital expenditures in order to plan effectively. 
C)  ​Forecasts of credit conditions are needed to plan the cash needs of the firm. 
D)  ​Public administrators and managers of NFP corporations need not forecast,since they need not make a profit. 
E)  ​Both c and d are false.

Question 11

Consumer expenditure plans is an example of a forecasting method.Which of the general categories best described this example?

Accepted Answer

A)  time-series forecasting techniques 
B)  barometric techniques 
C)  survey techniques and opinion polling 
D)  econometric techniques 
E)  input-output analysis 
A)  time-series forecasting techniques 
B)  barometric techniques 
C)  survey techniques and opinion polling 
D)  econometric techniques 
E)  input-output analysis

Question 12

The type of economic indicator that can best be used for business forecasting is the:

Accepted Answer

A)  leading indicator 
B)  coincident indicator 
C)  lagging indicator 
D)  current business inventory indicator 
E)  optimism/pessimism indicator 
A)  leading indicator 
B)  coincident indicator 
C)  lagging indicator 
D)  current business inventory indicator 
E)  optimism/pessimism indicator

Question 13

Which of the following barometric indicators would be the most helpful for forecasting future sales for an industry?

Accepted Answer

A)  lagging economic indicators. 
B)  leading economic indicators. 
C)  coincident economic indicators. 
D)  wishful thinking 
E)  none of the above 
A)  lagging economic indicators. 
B)  leading economic indicators. 
C)  coincident economic indicators. 
D)  wishful thinking 
E)  none of the above

Question 14

Select the correct statement.

Accepted Answer

A)  Qualitative forecasts give the direction of change. 
B)  Quantitative forecasts give the exact amount or exact percentage change. 
C)  Diffusion forecasts use the proportion of the forecasts that are positive to forecast up or down. 
D)  Surveys are a form of qualitative forecasting. 
E)  all of the above are correct. 
A)  Qualitative forecasts give the direction of change. 
B)  Quantitative forecasts give the exact amount or exact percentage change. 
C)  Diffusion forecasts use the proportion of the forecasts that are positive to forecast up or down. 
D)  Surveys are a form of qualitative forecasting. 
E)  all of the above are correct.

Question 15

Time-series forecasting models:

Accepted Answer

A)  are useful whenever changes occur rapidly and wildly 
B)  are more effective in making long-run forecasts than short-run forecasts 
C)  are based solely on historical observations of the values of the variable being forecasted 
D)  attempt to explain the underlying causal relationships which produce the observed outcome 
E)  none of the above 
A)  are useful whenever changes occur rapidly and wildly 
B)  are more effective in making long-run forecasts than short-run forecasts 
C)  are based solely on historical observations of the values of the variable being forecasted 
D)  attempt to explain the underlying causal relationships which produce the observed outcome 
E)  none of the above

Question 16

Milner Brewing Company experienced the following monthly sales (in thousands of barrels)during 2010: $$\begin{array} { l l l l l l } 
\text { Jan. } & \text { Feb. } & \text { Mar. } & \text { Apr. } & \text { May } & \text { June } \
100 & 92 & 112 & 108 & 116 & 116
\end{array}$$ (a) Develop 2-month moving average forecasts for March through July.
(b) Develop 4-month moving average forecasts for May through July.
(c) Develop forecasts for February through July using the exponential smoothing method (with
 $\mathrm { w } = .5$ ). Begin by assuming $\hat { Y } _ { \mathrm { t } + 1 } = \mathrm { Y } _ { \mathrm { t } }$.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Milner Brewing Company experienced the following monthly...

Question 17

The forecasting technique which attempts to forecast short-run changes and makes use of economic indicators known as leading,coincident or lagging indicators is known as:

Accepted Answer

A)  econometric technique 
B)  time-series forecasting 
C)  opinion polling 
D)  barometric technique 
E)  judgment forecasting 
A)  econometric technique 
B)  time-series forecasting 
C)  opinion polling 
D)  barometric technique 
E)  judgment forecasting

Question 18

Smoothing techniques are a form of ____ techniques which assume that there is an underlying pattern to be found in the historical values of a variable that is being forecast.

Accepted Answer

A)  opinion polling 
B)  barometric forecasting 
C)  econometric forecasting 
D)  time-series forecasting 
E)  none of the above 
A)  opinion polling 
B)  barometric forecasting 
C)  econometric forecasting 
D)  time-series forecasting 
E)  none of the above

Question 19

Seasonal variations can be incorporated into a time-series model in a number of different ways,including:

Accepted Answer

A)  ratio-to-trend method 
B)  use of dummy variables 
C)  root mean squared error method 
D)  a and b only 
E)  a,b,and c 
A)  ratio-to-trend method 
B)  use of dummy variables 
C)  root mean squared error method 
D)  a and b only 
E)  a,b,and c

An example of a time series data set is one for which the:

Variations in a time-series forecast can be caused by:

All of the following are criteria used to select a forecasting technique EXCEPT:

If two alternative economic models are offered,other things equal,we would

Simplified trend models are generally appropriate for predicting the turning points in an economic time series.

For studying demand relationships for a proposed new product that no one has ever used before,what would be the best method to use?

The variation in an economic time-series which is caused by major expansions or contractions usually of greater than a year in duration is known as:

In the first-order exponential smoothing model,the new forecast is equal to a weighted average of the old forecast and the actual value in the most recent period.

The use of quarterly data to develop the forecasting model Y_t = a +bY_t₋₁ is an example of which forecasting technique?

Regarding forecasting,which of the following statements is NOT true?

Consumer expenditure plans is an example of a forecasting method.Which of the general categories best described this example?

The type of economic indicator that can best be used for business forecasting is the:

Which of the following barometric indicators would be the most helpful for forecasting future sales for an industry?

Select the correct statement.

Time-series forecasting models:

The forecasting technique which attempts to forecast short-run changes and makes use of economic indicators known as leading,coincident or lagging indicators is known as:

Smoothing techniques are a form of ____ techniques which assume that there is an underlying pattern to be found in the historical values of a variable that is being forecast.

Seasonal variations can be incorporated into a time-series model in a number of different ways,including:

Introduction and Goals of the Firm

Fundamental Economic Concepts

Demand Analysis

Estimating Demand

Managing in the Global Economy

Production Economics

Cost Analysis

Applications of Cost Theory

Prices,output,and Strategy: Pure and Monopolistic Competition

Price and Output Determination: Monopoly and Dominant Firms

Price and Output Determination: Oligopoly

Best-Practice Tactics: Game Theory

Pricing Techniques and Analysis

Contracting,governance,and Organizational Form

Government Regulation

Long-Term Investment Analysis

Filters

Exam 5: Business and Economic Forecasting

An example of a time series data set is one for which the:

Variations in a time-series forecast can be caused by:

All of the following are criteria used to select a forecasting technique EXCEPT:

If two alternative economic models are offered,other things equal,we would

Simplified trend models are generally appropriate for predicting the turning points in an economic time series.

For studying demand relationships for a proposed new product that no one has ever used before,what would be the best method to use?

The variation in an economic time-series which is caused by major expansions or contractions usually of greater than a year in duration is known as:

In the first-order exponential smoothing model,the new forecast is equal to a weighted average of the old forecast and the actual value in the most recent period.

The use of quarterly data to develop the forecasting model Yt = a +bYt−1 is an example of which forecasting technique?

Regarding forecasting,which of the following statements is NOT true?

Consumer expenditure plans is an example of a forecasting method.Which of the general categories best described this example?

The type of economic indicator that can best be used for business forecasting is the:

Which of the following barometric indicators would be the most helpful for forecasting future sales for an industry?

Select the correct statement.

Time-series forecasting models:

The forecasting technique which attempts to forecast short-run changes and makes use of economic indicators known as leading,coincident or lagging indicators is known as:

Smoothing techniques are a form of ____ techniques which assume that there is an underlying pattern to be found in the historical values of a variable that is being forecast.

Seasonal variations can be incorporated into a time-series model in a number of different ways,including:

Introduction and Goals of the Firm

Fundamental Economic Concepts

Demand Analysis

Estimating Demand

Managing in the Global Economy

Production Economics

Cost Analysis

Applications of Cost Theory

Prices,output,and Strategy: Pure and Monopolistic Competition

Price and Output Determination: Monopoly and Dominant Firms

Price and Output Determination: Oligopoly

Best-Practice Tactics: Game Theory

Pricing Techniques and Analysis

Contracting,governance,and Organizational Form

Government Regulation

Long-Term Investment Analysis

Filters

The use of quarterly data to develop the forecasting model Y_t = a +bY_t₋₁ is an example of which forecasting technique?