Question 1

Arnold Tofu owns and operates a chain of 12 vegetable protein "hamburger" restaurants in northern Louisiana. Sales figures and profits for the stores are in the table below. Sales are given in millions of dollars; profits are in hundreds of thousands of dollars. Calculate a regression line for the data. What is your forecast of profit for a store with sales of $24 million? $30 million?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Arnold Tofu owns and operates a chain...

Question 2

A naïve forecast for September sales of a product would be equal to the forecast for August.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 3

__________ forecasts employ one or more mathematical models that rely on historical data and/or associative variables to forecast demand.

Accepted Answer

The answer of __________ forecasts employ one or more mathematical...

Question 4

Given an actual demand of 61, a previous forecast of 58, and an alpha of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

Accepted Answer

A)  45.5 
B)  57.1 
C)  58.9 
D)  61.0 
E)  65.5

Question 5

What is a tracking signal? Explain the connection between adaptive smoothing and tracking signals.

Accepted Answer

The answer of What is a tracking signal? Explain the...

Question 6

A naive forecast for September sales of a product would be equal to the sales in August.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

What two numbers are contained in the daily report to the CEO of Walt Disney Parks & Resorts regarding the six Orlando parks?

Accepted Answer

A)  yesterday's forecasted attendance and yesterday's actual attendance 
B)  yesterday's actual attendance and today's forecasted attendance 
C)  yesterday's forecasted attendance and today's forecasted attendance 
D)  yesterday's actual attendance and last year's actual attendance 
E)  yesterday's forecasted attendance and the year-to-date average daily forecast error

Question 8

Forecasts used for new product planning, capital expenditures, facility location or expansion, and R&D typically utilize a

Accepted Answer

A)  short-range time horizon 
B)  medium-range time horizon 
C)  long-range time horizon 
D)  naive method, because there is no data history 
E)  all of the above

Question 9

An approach to exponential smoothing in which the smoothing constant is automatically changed to keep errors to a minimum is called __________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of An approach to exponential smoothing in which...

Question 10

Patterns in the data that occur every several years are called circuits.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

For a given product demand, the time series trend equation is 53 - 4 X. The negative sign on the slope of the equation

Accepted Answer

A)  is a mathematical impossibility 
B)  is an indication that the forecast is biased, with forecast values lower than actual values 
C)  is an indication that product demand is declining 
D)  implies that the coefficient of determination will also be negative 
E)  implies that the cumulative error will be negative

Question 12

Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast deliveries for period 10. Let alpha = 0.4, beta = 0.2, and let the initial trend value be 4 and the initial forecast be 200.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to...

Question 13

Linear-regression analysis is a straight-line mathematical model to describe the functional relationships between independent and dependent variables.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data. The three previous July values were 110, 135, and 130. The average over all months is 160. The approximate seasonal index for July is:

Accepted Answer

The answer of A seasonal index for a monthly series...

Question 15

The tracking signal is the

Accepted Answer

A)  standard error of the estimate 
B)  absolute deviation of the last period's forecast 
C)  mean absolute deviation (MA
D)  
D)  ratio of cumulative error/MAD 
E)  mean absolute percentage error (MAP
E)

Question 16

Linear regression is known as a(n) __________ because it incorporates variables or factors that might influence the quantity being forecast.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Linear regression is known as a(n) __________...

Question 17

__________ forecasts address the business cycle by predicting inflation rates, money supplies, housing starts, and other planning indicators.

Accepted Answer

The answer of __________ forecasts address the business cycle by...

Question 18

Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 8,000 units per month, averaged over all 12 months of the year. The product follows a seasonal pattern, for which the January monthly index is 1.25. What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Demand for a certain product is forecast...

Question 19

Forecasts of individual products tend to be more accurate than forecasts of product families.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 20

Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures, which are related to product demand, to predict demand?

Accepted Answer

A)  associative models 
B)  exponential smoothing 
C)  weighted moving average 
D)  simple moving average 
E)  time series

Exam 4: Forecasting

A naïve forecast for September sales of a product would be equal to the forecast for August.

__________ forecasts employ one or more mathematical models that rely on historical data and/or associative variables to forecast demand.

Given an actual demand of 61, a previous forecast of 58, and an alpha of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

What is a tracking signal? Explain the connection between adaptive smoothing and tracking signals.

A naive forecast for September sales of a product would be equal to the sales in August.

What two numbers are contained in the daily report to the CEO of Walt Disney Parks & Resorts regarding the six Orlando parks?

Forecasts used for new product planning, capital expenditures, facility location or expansion, and R&D typically utilize a

An approach to exponential smoothing in which the smoothing constant is automatically changed to keep errors to a minimum is called __________.

Patterns in the data that occur every several years are called circuits.

For a given product demand, the time series trend equation is 53 - 4 X. The negative sign on the slope of the equation

Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast deliveries for period 10. Let alpha = 0.4, beta = 0.2, and let the initial trend value be 4 and the initial forecast be 200.

Linear-regression analysis is a straight-line mathematical model to describe the functional relationships between independent and dependent variables.

A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data. The three previous July values were 110, 135, and 130. The average over all months is 160. The approximate seasonal index for July is:

The tracking signal is the

Linear regression is known as a(n) __________ because it incorporates variables or factors that might influence the quantity being forecast.

__________ forecasts address the business cycle by predicting inflation rates, money supplies, housing starts, and other planning indicators.

Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 8,000 units per month, averaged over all 12 months of the year. The product follows a seasonal pattern, for which the January monthly index is 1.25. What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January?

Forecasts of individual products tend to be more accurate than forecasts of product families.

Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures, which are related to product demand, to predict demand?