Question 1

The NYSE works 5-day work per week.If we want to measure the impact of the day of the week on NYSE performance we would need:

Accepted Answer

A)  7 indicator variables 
B)  6 indicator variables 
C)  5 indicator variables 
D)  4 indicator variables

Question 2

The trend line $\hat { y }$ = 0.75 + 0.005t was calculated from quarterly data for 2000-2004,where t = 1 for the first quarter of 2000.The trend value for the second quarter of the year 2005 is ____________________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of The trend line $\hat { y }$...

Question 3

We calculate the three-period moving averages for a time series for all time periods except the:

Accepted Answer

A)  first period 
B)  last period 
C)  first and last period 
D)  first and last two periods

Question 4

Which of the following equations deseasonalize a time series,where T,C,S,and R are respectively the trend,cyclical,seasonal,and random variation components of the time series?

Accepted Answer

A)  (T * C * S * R)/ T = C * S * R 
B)  (T * C * S * R)/ C = T * S * R 
C)  (T * C * S * R)/ S = T * C * R 
D)  (T * C * S * R)/ R = T * C * S

Question 5

Microprocessors
Annual production (in millions)of computer microprocessors in a large electronics company was recorded as shown below
 $$\begin{array} { | c | r c | } 
\hline \text { Year } & t & \text { Production } \
\hline 2011 & 1 & 26 \
2012 & 2 & 23 \
2013 & 3 & 21 \
2014 & 4 & 25 \
2015 & 5 & 32 \
2016 & 6 & 38 \
2017 & 7 & 43 \
2018 & 8 & 36 \
2019 & 9 & 29 \
2020 & 10 & 25 \
\hline
\end{array}$$
-{Microprocessors Narrative} Calculate the percentage of trend for each time period.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Microprocessors
Annual production (in millions)of computer microprocessors in...

Question 6

Holiday Hours
The total holiday hours (in 1000s)were recorded for 16 quarters in a large steel mill as shown below.
 $$\begin{array} { | c | c c| } 
\hline \text { Year } & \text { Quarter } & \text { Overtime Hours } \
\hline 2011 & 1 & 32 \
& 2 & 15 \
& 3 & 21 \
& 4 & 28 \
\hline 2012 & 1 & 35 \
& 2 & 16 \
& 3 & 27 \
& 4 & 29 \
\hline 2013 & 1 & 36 \
& 2 & 21 \
& 3 & 25 \
& 4 & 37 \
\hline 2014 & 1 & 41 \
& 2 & 29 \
& 3 & 31 \
& 4 & 40 \
\hline
\end{array}$$
-{Holiday Hours Narrative} What do the seasonal indexes tell us?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Holiday Hours
The total holiday hours (in 1000s)were...

Question 7

The seasonal variation,one of the four different components of a time series,is more likely to exhibit the relatively steady growth of the population of the United States from 181 million in 1960 to 273 million in 1999.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

A trend is a persistent pattern in annual time-series data that has to be followed for several years.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

In exponentially smoothed time series,the smoothing constant w is chosen on the basis of how much smoothing is required.In general,which of the following statements is true?

Accepted Answer

A)  A small value of w such as w = 0.1 results in very little smoothing,while a large value such as w = 0.8 results in too much smoothing 
B)  A small value of w such as w = 0.1 results in too much smoothing,which a large value such as w = 0.8 results in very little smoothing 
C)  A small value of w such as w = 0.1 and a large value such as w = 0.8 may both result in very little smoothing 
D)  A small value of w such as w = 0.1 and a large value such as w = 0.8 may both result in too much smoothing

Question 10

The level of construction employment in West Virginia is lowest during the winter.A model designed to forecast construction employment in Charleston should use:

Accepted Answer

A)  a time trend 
B)  a moving average 
C)  seasonal indicator variable 
D)  an autoregressive model

Question 11

To calculate the five-period moving average for a time series,we average the value in that time period,the values in the two preceding time periods,and the values in the two following time periods.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

In measuring seasonal and random variation of a time series with no cyclical effect,we may use the:

Accepted Answer

A)  ratio of the time series divided by the moving average 
B)  ratio of the time series divided by the predicted values 
C)  trend value 
D)  Both a and b

Question 13

ebay Storefront Sales
The sales figures (in $1000s)have been recorded in an ebay storefront as shown in the following table.
 $$\begin{array} { | c c | c c | } 
\hline \text { Time Periad } & y & \text { Time Periad } & y \
\hline 1 & 35 & 9 & 46 \
2 & 32 & 10 & 43 \
3 & 29 & 11 & 48 \
4 & 26 & 12 & 41 \
5 & 28 & 13 & 34 \
6 & 32 & 14 & 29 \
7 & 38 & 15 & 25 \
8 & 43 & 16 & 23 \
\hline
\end{array}$$
-{ebay Storefront Sales Narrative} Calculate the percentage of trend for each time period.

Accepted Answer

The answer of ebay Storefront Sales
The sales figures (in $1000s)have...

Question 14

Mattress Sales
Monthly mattress sales (in $1,000s)of a mattress store are shown below.
 $$\begin{array} { | l | c c c c c c | } 
\hline \text { Manth } & \text { Jan. } & \text { Feb. } & \text { March } & \text { April } & \text { May } & \text { June } \
\hline \text { Sales } & 73 & 65 & 72 & 82 & 86 & 90 \
\hline
\end{array}$$
-{Monthly Mattress Sales Narrative} Calculate the four-month moving average,and four-month centered moving average.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Mattress Sales
Monthly mattress sales (in $1,000s)of a...

Question 15

In determining monthly seasonal indexes for gas consumption,the sum of the 12 means for gas consumption as a percentage of the moving average is 1150.To get the seasonal indexes,each of the 12 monthly means is to be multiplied by:

Accepted Answer

A)  1150 / 1200 
B)  (1200 + 1150)/ 12 
C)  (1150 + 12)/ 1200 
D)  1200 / 1150

Question 16

The trend line $\hat { y }$ = 500 + 30t, (t = 1,2,3,.... ,20),and the seasonal indexes shown in the table below were computed from five years of quarterly sales data.Forecast the sales for the next four quarters.
 $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } 
\hline \text { Quarter } & \text { Seasanal Index } \
\hline 1 & 1.4 \
2 & 1.2 \
3 & 0.9 \
4 & 0.5 \
\hline
\end{array}$$

Accepted Answer

The answer of The trend line $\hat { y }$...

Question 17

The high level of airline ticket sales that travel agencies experience during summer is an example of what component of a time series?

Accepted Answer

A)  Long-term trend 
B)  Cyclical variation 
C)  Seasonal variation 
D)  Random variation

Question 18

If the time series is composed of ____________________ variation and ____________________ trend,we can use seasonal indexes and the regression equation to forecast.

Accepted Answer

The answer of If the time series is composed of...

Question 19

Each forecast using the method of exponential smoothing depends on all the previous observations in the time series.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 20

After estimating a trend model for annual time-series data,you obtain the following residual plot against time.  The problem with your model is that:

Accepted Answer

A)  the cyclical component has not been accounted for 
B)  the seasonal component has not been accounted for 
C)  the trend component has not been accounted for 
D)  the irregular component has not been accounted for

Exam 20: Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting

The NYSE works 5-day work per week.If we want to measure the impact of the day of the week on NYSE performance we would need:

The trend line $\hat { y }$ = 0.75 + 0.005t was calculated from quarterly data for 2000-2004,where t = 1 for the first quarter of 2000.The trend value for the second quarter of the year 2005 is ____________________.

We calculate the three-period moving averages for a time series for all time periods except the:

Which of the following equations deseasonalize a time series,where T,C,S,and R are respectively the trend,cyclical,seasonal,and random variation components of the time series?

The seasonal variation,one of the four different components of a time series,is more likely to exhibit the relatively steady growth of the population of the United States from 181 million in 1960 to 273 million in 1999.

A trend is a persistent pattern in annual time-series data that has to be followed for several years.

In exponentially smoothed time series,the smoothing constant w is chosen on the basis of how much smoothing is required.In general,which of the following statements is true?

The level of construction employment in West Virginia is lowest during the winter.A model designed to forecast construction employment in Charleston should use:

To calculate the five-period moving average for a time series,we average the value in that time period,the values in the two preceding time periods,and the values in the two following time periods.

In measuring seasonal and random variation of a time series with no cyclical effect,we may use the:

In determining monthly seasonal indexes for gas consumption,the sum of the 12 means for gas consumption as a percentage of the moving average is 1150.To get the seasonal indexes,each of the 12 monthly means is to be multiplied by:

The high level of airline ticket sales that travel agencies experience during summer is an example of what component of a time series?

If the time series is composed of variation and trend,we can use seasonal indexes and the regression equation to forecast.

Each forecast using the method of exponential smoothing depends on all the previous observations in the time series.

After estimating a trend model for annual time-series data,you obtain the following residual plot against time. The problem with your model is that:

Exam 20: Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting

The NYSE works 5-day work per week.If we want to measure the impact of the day of the week on NYSE performance we would need:

The trend line y^\hat { y }y^​ = 0.75 + 0.005t was calculated from quarterly data for 2000-2004,where t = 1 for the first quarter of 2000.The trend value for the second quarter of the year 2005 is ____________________.

We calculate the three-period moving averages for a time series for all time periods except the:

Which of the following equations deseasonalize a time series,where T,C,S,and R are respectively the trend,cyclical,seasonal,and random variation components of the time series?

The seasonal variation,one of the four different components of a time series,is more likely to exhibit the relatively steady growth of the population of the United States from 181 million in 1960 to 273 million in 1999.

A trend is a persistent pattern in annual time-series data that has to be followed for several years.

In exponentially smoothed time series,the smoothing constant w is chosen on the basis of how much smoothing is required.In general,which of the following statements is true?

The level of construction employment in West Virginia is lowest during the winter.A model designed to forecast construction employment in Charleston should use:

To calculate the five-period moving average for a time series,we average the value in that time period,the values in the two preceding time periods,and the values in the two following time periods.

In measuring seasonal and random variation of a time series with no cyclical effect,we may use the:

In determining monthly seasonal indexes for gas consumption,the sum of the 12 means for gas consumption as a percentage of the moving average is 1150.To get the seasonal indexes,each of the 12 monthly means is to be multiplied by:

The high level of airline ticket sales that travel agencies experience during summer is an example of what component of a time series?

If the time series is composed of ____________________ variation and ____________________ trend,we can use seasonal indexes and the regression equation to forecast.

Each forecast using the method of exponential smoothing depends on all the previous observations in the time series.

After estimating a trend model for annual time-series data,you obtain the following residual plot against time. The problem with your model is that:

The trend line $\hat { y }$ = 0.75 + 0.005t was calculated from quarterly data for 2000-2004,where t = 1 for the first quarter of 2000.The trend value for the second quarter of the year 2005 is ____________________.

If the time series is composed of variation and trend,we can use seasonal indexes and the regression equation to forecast.