Question 1

Often, index numbers are expressed as ____________.

Accepted Answer

A) percentages 
B) frequencies 
C) cycles 
D) regression coefficients 
E) correlation coefficients

Question 2

The table below shows the prices in $ and quantities (thousands)for five specialized electronic components for 2000 and 2016.  The Laspeyres price index for 2016 using 2000 as base year is ______.

Accepted Answer

A) 136.25 
B) 137.33 
C) 138.75 
D) 139.87 
E) 140.33

Question 3

The ratios of "actuals to moving averages" (seasonal indexes)for a time series are presented in the following table as percentages. $$\begin{array} { | r | r | r | r | r | r | } 
\hline & 2008 & 2009 & 2010 & 2011 & 2012 \
\hline Q _ { 1 } & & 112.22 & 110.78 & 111.22 & 111.87 \
\hline Q _ { 2 } & & 100.65 & 108.68 & 103.78 & 101.95 \
\hline Q _ { 3 } & 97.76 & 99.08 & 97.68 & 97.61 & \
\hline Q _ { 4 } & 86.61 & 95.00 & 94.64 & 92.92 & \
\hline
\end{array}$$ The final (completely adjusted)estimate of the seasonal index for Q1 is __________.

Accepted Answer

A) 109.733 
B) 109.921 
C) 113.853 
D) 113.492 
E) 111.545

Question 4

When a trucking firm uses the number of shipments for January of the previous year as the forecast for January next year, it is using a naïve forecasting model.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

Index numbers facilitate comparison of ____________.

Accepted Answer

A) means 
B) data over time 
C) variances 
D) samples 
E) deviations

Question 6

Jim Royo, Manager of Billings Building Supply (BBS), wants to develop a model to forecast BBS's monthly sales (in $1,000's).He selects the dollar value of residential building permits (in $10,000)as the predictor variable.An analysis of the data yielded the following tables.   Jim's calculated value for the Durbin-Watson statistic is 1.14.Using $\alpha$ = 0.05, the appropriate decision is: _________.

Accepted Answer

A) do not reject H0: $\rho$ = 0 
B) reject H0: $\rho$ = 0 
C) do not reject H0: $\rho$$\neq$ 0 
D) the test is inconclusive 
E) reject H0: $\rho$ ≠ 0

Question 7

If a researcher is using exponential smoothing and determines that the forecast for the next period (Ft + 1)is the average of the actual value for the previous period (Xt)and the forecast value for the previous period (Ft), then α = ______.

Accepted Answer

A) 0.35 
B) 0.40 
C) 0.50 
D) 0.55 
E) there is not enough information to determine the value of α

Question 8

If the trend equation is quadratic in time t=1….T, the forecast value for the next time period, T+1, depends on time T.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

If the seasonal index values for four consecutive quarters are 86.3, 105.6, 99.2, and 100, respectively, then which quarter has the most activity compared with the base quarter?

Accepted Answer

A) Q1 
B) Q2 
C) cannot be determined 
D) Q3 
E) Q4

Question 10

Analysis of data for an autoregressive forecasting model produced the following tables.   The actual values of this time series, y, were 228, 54, and 191 for May, June, and July, respectively.The forecast value predicted by the model for July is __________.

Accepted Answer

A) -101.00 
B) 104.54 
C) 218.71 
D) 21.56 
E) -77.81

Question 11

Although seasonal effects can confound a trend analysis, a regression model is robust to these effects and the researcher does not need to adjust for seasonality prior to using a regression model to analyze trends.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

If a researcher is using exponential smoothing and determines that the forecast for the next period (Ft + 1)coincides with the weighted average of the actual value for the previous period (Xt)and the forecast value for the previous period (Ft), with weights of p and q respectively.If p = 2, then q = ______.

Accepted Answer

A) 2/α + 2 
B) 2/(α + 2) 
C) 2/(α − 2) 
D) 1/(α − 2) 
E) 2/α − 2

Question 13

If the Yeart Quarterq actual value is 9,885 and the corresponding Yeart Quarterq seasonal index is 97.75, then the Yeart Quarterq deseasonalized value is ______.

Accepted Answer

A) 222.41 
B) 9,662.59 
C) 9,775.00 
D) 10,083.18 
E) 10,112.53

Question 14

Using 2000 as the base year, the 1990 value of the Paasche Price Index is ______.(Quantities are averages for the student body.)

Accepted Answer

A) 80.72 
B) 162.28 
C) 240.06 
D) 50.45 
E) 30.35

Question 15

Using 2010 as the base year, the 2012 value of a simple price index for the following price data is _____________. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | } 
\hline \text { Year} & 2008 & 2009 & 2010 & 2011 & 2012 & 2013 \
\hline \text { Price } & 29,88 & 32.69 & 42.04 & 46.18 & 47,98 & 48.32 \
\hline
\end{array}$$

Accepted Answer

A) 77.60 
B) 114.13 
C) 160.58 
D) 99.30 
E) 100.00

Question 16

A simple index number is the ratio of the base period divided by the period of interest, multiplied by 100.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

Fitting a linear trend to 36 monthly data points (January 2011 = 1, February 2011 =2, March 2011 = 3, etc.)produced the following tables.   The projected trend value for January 2014 is ________.

Accepted Answer

A) 231.39 
B) 555.71 
C) 339.50 
D) 447.76 
E) 355.71

Question 18

A small value of the Durbin-Watson statistic indicates that successive error terms are positively correlated.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

A time series with forecast values is presented in the following table: $$\begin{array} { | r | r | r | } 
\hline \text { Month } & \text { Actual } & \text { Forcast } \
\hline \text { Jan } & 1 & \
\hline \text { Mar } & 1.2 & * \
\hline \text { May } & 1.15 & * \
\hline \text { Jul } & 1.25 & * \
\hline \text { Sep } & 1.3 & * \
\hline \text { Nov } & 1.275 & x \
\hline
\end{array}$$ If the mean absolute deviation (MAD)until September is 0.06, and the overall MAD is 0.05,
Then x = ______.

Accepted Answer

A) 1.270 
B) 1.270 or 1.280 
C) 1.265 or 1.285 
D) 1.260 or 1.290 
E) 1.285

Question 20

The city golf course is interested in starting a junior golf program.The golf pro has collected data on the number of youths under 13 that have played golf during the last 4 months.Using a three-month moving average (with weights of 5, 3, and 1 for the most current value, next most current value and oldest value, respectively), the forecast value for October made at the end of September in the following time series would be __________. $$\begin{array} { | c | r | } 
\hline \text { Joly } & 28 \
\hline \text { Ang } & 27 \
\hline \text { Sept } & 17 \
\hline \text { Oct } & 19 \
\hline
\end{array}$$

Accepted Answer

A) 24 
B) 21 
C) 21.56 
D) 19.22 
E) 22

Exam 15: Time-Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

Often, index numbers are expressed as ____________.

The table below shows the prices in $ and quantities (thousands) for five specialized electronic components for 2000 and 2016. The Laspeyres price index for 2016 using 2000 as base year is ______.

When a trucking firm uses the number of shipments for January of the previous year as the forecast for January next year, it is using a naïve forecasting model.

Index numbers facilitate comparison of ____________.

If a researcher is using exponential smoothing and determines that the forecast for the next period (F_{t + 1}) is the average of the actual value for the previous period (X_t) and the forecast value for the previous period (F_t) , then α = ______.

If the trend equation is quadratic in time t=1….T, the forecast value for the next time period, T+1, depends on time T.

If the seasonal index values for four consecutive quarters are 86.3, 105.6, 99.2, and 100, respectively, then which quarter has the most activity compared with the base quarter?

Analysis of data for an autoregressive forecasting model produced the following tables. The actual values of this time series, y, were 228, 54, and 191 for May, June, and July, respectively.The forecast value predicted by the model for July is __________.

Although seasonal effects can confound a trend analysis, a regression model is robust to these effects and the researcher does not need to adjust for seasonality prior to using a regression model to analyze trends.

If the Year_t Quarter_q actual value is 9,885 and the corresponding Year_t Quarter_q seasonal index is 97.75, then the Year_t Quarter_q deseasonalized value is ______.

Using 2000 as the base year, the 1990 value of the Paasche Price Index is ______.(Quantities are averages for the student body.)

A simple index number is the ratio of the base period divided by the period of interest, multiplied by 100.

Fitting a linear trend to 36 monthly data points (January 2011 = 1, February 2011 =2, March 2011 = 3, etc.) produced the following tables. The projected trend value for January 2014 is ________.

A small value of the Durbin-Watson statistic indicates that successive error terms are positively correlated.

Exam 15: Time-Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

Often, index numbers are expressed as ____________.

The table below shows the prices in $ and quantities (thousands) for five specialized electronic components for 2000 and 2016. The Laspeyres price index for 2016 using 2000 as base year is ______.

When a trucking firm uses the number of shipments for January of the previous year as the forecast for January next year, it is using a naïve forecasting model.

Index numbers facilitate comparison of ____________.

If a researcher is using exponential smoothing and determines that the forecast for the next period (Ft + 1) is the average of the actual value for the previous period (Xt) and the forecast value for the previous period (Ft) , then α = ______.

If the trend equation is quadratic in time t=1….T, the forecast value for the next time period, T+1, depends on time T.

If the seasonal index values for four consecutive quarters are 86.3, 105.6, 99.2, and 100, respectively, then which quarter has the most activity compared with the base quarter?

Analysis of data for an autoregressive forecasting model produced the following tables. The actual values of this time series, y, were 228, 54, and 191 for May, June, and July, respectively.The forecast value predicted by the model for July is __________.

Although seasonal effects can confound a trend analysis, a regression model is robust to these effects and the researcher does not need to adjust for seasonality prior to using a regression model to analyze trends.

If the Yeart Quarterq actual value is 9,885 and the corresponding Yeart Quarterq seasonal index is 97.75, then the Yeart Quarterq deseasonalized value is ______.

Using 2000 as the base year, the 1990 value of the Paasche Price Index is ______.(Quantities are averages for the student body.)

A simple index number is the ratio of the base period divided by the period of interest, multiplied by 100.

Fitting a linear trend to 36 monthly data points (January 2011 = 1, February 2011 =2, March 2011 = 3, etc.) produced the following tables. The projected trend value for January 2014 is ________.

A small value of the Durbin-Watson statistic indicates that successive error terms are positively correlated.

If a researcher is using exponential smoothing and determines that the forecast for the next period (F_{t + 1}) is the average of the actual value for the previous period (X_t) and the forecast value for the previous period (F_t) , then α = ______.

If the Year_t Quarter_q actual value is 9,885 and the corresponding Year_t Quarter_q seasonal index is 97.75, then the Year_t Quarter_q deseasonalized value is ______.