Question 1

SCENARIO 16-1 
-Referring to Scenario 16-1, set up a scatter diagram (i.e., a time-series plot)with year on the
horizontal X-axis.

Accepted Answer

The answer of SCENARIO 16-1 
-Referring to Scenario 16-1, set...

Question 2

The following is the list of MAD statistics for each of the models you have estimated from
Time-series data:

Accepted Answer

A)  linear trend. 
B)  quadratic trend. 
C)  exponential trend. 
D)  second-order autoregressive.

Question 3

Which of the following terms describes the overall long-term tendency of a time series?

Accepted Answer

A)  Trend 
B)  Cyclical component 
C)  Irregular component 
D)  Seasonal component

Question 4

When a time series appears to be increasing at an increasing rate, such that percentage
Difference from value to value is constant, the appropriate model to fit is the

Accepted Answer

A) linear trend. 
B) quadratic trend. 
C) exponential trend. 
D) None of the above.

Question 5

SCENARIO 16-2 
-True or False: Referring to Scenario 16-2, advertising expenditures appear to be increasing
in a linear rather than curvilinear manner over time.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

SCENARIO 16-5
The number of passengers arriving at San Francisco on the Amtrak cross-country express on 6
successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36, and 48.
-Referring to Scenario 16-5, the number of arrivals will be smoothed with a 3-term moving
average.The last smoothed value will be __________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of SCENARIO 16-5
The number of passengers arriving at...

Question 7

SCENARIO 16-3 
-Referring to Scenario 16-3, if a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series,
What would be the second calculated value?

Accepted Answer

A)  36 
B)  40.5 
C)  54 
D)  72

Question 8

The effect of an unpredictable, rare event will be contained in the ___________ component.

Accepted Answer

A)  trend 
B)  cyclical 
C)  irregular 
D)  seasonal

Question 9

SCENARIO 16-3 
-Referring to Scenario 16-3, if this series is smoothed using exponential smoothing with a
Smoothing constant of 1/3, how many values would it have?

Accepted Answer

A)  3 
B)  4 
C)  5 
D)  6

Question 10

SCENARIO 16-5
The number of passengers arriving at San Francisco on the Amtrak cross-country express on 6
successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36, and 48.
-Referring to Scenario 16-5, the number of arrivals will be smoothed with a 5-term moving
average.The first smoothed value will be __________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of SCENARIO 16-5
The number of passengers arriving at...

Question 11

A model that can be used to make predictions about long-term future values of a time series
Is

Accepted Answer

A)  linear trend. 
B)  quadratic trend. 
C)  exponential trend. 
D)  All of the above.

Question 12

Which of the following statements about moving averages is not true?

Accepted Answer

A)  It can be used to smooth a series. 
B)  It gives equal weight to all values in the computation. 
C)  It is simpler than the method of exponential smoothing. 
D)  It gives greater weight to more recent data.

Question 13

SCENARIO 16-14 
-Referring to Scenario 16-14, using the regression equation, which of the following values
Is the best forecast for the number of contracts in the third quarter of 2014?

Accepted Answer

A)  49,091 
B)  133,352 
C)  421,697 
D)  1,482,518

Question 14

SCENARIO 16-14 
-Referring to Scenario 16-14, to obtain a forecast for the first quarter of 2014 using the
Model, which of the following sets of values should be used in the regression equation?

Accepted Answer

Question 15

The overall upward or downward pattern of the data in an annual time series will be
Contained in the ____________ component.

Accepted Answer

A)  trend 
B)  cyclical 
C)  irregular 
D)  seasonal

Question 16

SCENARIO 16-3 
-Referring to Scenario 16-3, suppose the last two smoothed values are 81 and 96 (Note: they
Are not).What would you forecast as the value of the time series for July?

Accepted Answer

A)  81 
B)  86 
C)  91 
D)  96

Question 17

SCENARIO 16-14 
-

Accepted Answer

Question 18

SCENARIO 16-14 
-

Accepted Answer

Question 19

True or False: If a time series does not exhibit a long-term trend, the method of exponential
smoothing may be used to obtain short-term predictions about the future.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 20

True or False: Given a data set with 15 yearly observations, there are only seven 9-year
moving averages.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Exam 16: Time-Series Forecasting

SCENARIO 16-1 -Referring to Scenario 16-1, set up a scatter diagram (i.e., a time-series plot)with year on the horizontal X-axis.

The following is the list of MAD statistics for each of the models you have estimated from Time-series data:

Which of the following terms describes the overall long-term tendency of a time series?

When a time series appears to be increasing at an increasing rate, such that percentage Difference from value to value is constant, the appropriate model to fit is the

SCENARIO 16-2 -True or False: Referring to Scenario 16-2, advertising expenditures appear to be increasing in a linear rather than curvilinear manner over time.

SCENARIO 16-5 The number of passengers arriving at San Francisco on the Amtrak cross-country express on 6 successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36, and 48. -Referring to Scenario 16-5, the number of arrivals will be smoothed with a 3-term moving average.The last smoothed value will be __________.

SCENARIO 16-3 -Referring to Scenario 16-3, if a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, What would be the second calculated value?

The effect of an unpredictable, rare event will be contained in the ___________ component.

SCENARIO 16-3 -Referring to Scenario 16-3, if this series is smoothed using exponential smoothing with a Smoothing constant of 1/3, how many values would it have?

A model that can be used to make predictions about long-term future values of a time series Is

Which of the following statements about moving averages is not true?

SCENARIO 16-14 -Referring to Scenario 16-14, using the regression equation, which of the following values Is the best forecast for the number of contracts in the third quarter of 2014?

The overall upward or downward pattern of the data in an annual time series will be Contained in the ____________ component.

SCENARIO 16-3 -Referring to Scenario 16-3, suppose the last two smoothed values are 81 and 96 (Note: they Are not) .What would you forecast as the value of the time series for July?

True or False: If a time series does not exhibit a long-term trend, the method of exponential smoothing may be used to obtain short-term predictions about the future.

True or False: Given a data set with 15 yearly observations, there are only seven 9-year moving averages.