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Exam 4: Randomness and Probability
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Question 21
Essay
Home ownership According to the Bureau of the Census, 68.0% of Americans owned their own homes in 2003. A local real estate office is curious as to whether a higher percentage of Americans own their own homes in its area. The office selects a random sample of 200 people in the area to estimate the percentage of those people that own their own homes. a. Verify that a Normal model is a useful approximation for the Binomial in this situation. b. What is the probability that at least 140 people will report owning their own home? c. Based on the sample, how many people would it take for you to be convinced that a higher percentage of Americans own their own homes in that area? Explain.
Question 22
Essay
A young boy is fishing off the end of a dock. He estimates that for one out of every 15 times he casts his line, he gets at least a nibble from a curious fish. He is going to cast his line 50 times before he switches to toad hunting. -What is the probability that the fisherman will get 5 nibbles on his line.
Question 23
Multiple Choice
Here is the distribution of workers a restaurant keeps on staff during a 1-hour shift.
-If the workers are paid $10/hour, what is the expected long-term cost of a 1-hour shift?
Question 24
Essay
A sporting goods store announces a "Wheel of Savings" sale. Customers select the merchandise they want to purchase, then at the cash register they spin a wheel to determine the size of the discount they will receive. The wheel is divided into 12 regions, like a clock. Six of those regions are red, and award a 10% discount. The three white regions award a 20% discount and two blue regions a 40% discount. The remaining region is gold, and a customer whose lucky spin lands there gets a 100% discount - the merchandise is free! Show your work.
-What is the probability that three consecutive customers all get 20% discounts?
Question 25
Essay
Many school administrators watch enrollment numbers for answers to questions parents ask. Some parents wondered if preferring a particular science course is related to the student's preference in foreign language. Students were surveyed to establish their preference in science and foreign language courses. Does it appear that preferences in science and foreign language are independent? Explain.
Question 26
Essay
The owner of a small convenience store is trying to decide whether to discontinue selling magazines. He suspects that only 5% of the customers buy a magazine and thinks that he might be able to use the display space to sell something more profitable. Before making a final decision he decides that for one day he'll keep track of the number of customers and whether or not they buy a magazine. -What is the probability that at least 5 of his first 50 customers buy magazines?
Question 27
Essay
Jacob has a bag of his favorite marbles. It has 3 red marbles, 4 blue and 10 of his most favorite color, neon orange. -If Jacob removes 3 marbles from the bag, what are the chances that he will get at least one orange?
Question 28
Essay
Cigarette taxes New York public health officials report that currently 22% of adults smoke (Ithaca Journal, 1/12/04). They hope that newly increased state cigarette taxes will reduce this rate. They plan to check in December by selecting a random sample of 1200 New Yorkers to estimate again the percentage of adults who smoke. a. Verify that a Normal model is a useful approximation for the binomial in this situation. b. In that December sample, how many smokers would it take to convince you that the percentage of NY adults who smoke had decreased significantly? Explain.
Question 29
Essay
The Masterfoods company manufactures bags of Peanut Butter M&M's. They report that they make 10% each brown and red candies, and 20% each yellow, blue, and orange candies. The rest of the candies are green. a. If you pick a Peanut Butter M&M at random, what is the probability that i. it is green? ii. it is a primary color (red, yellow, or blue)? iii. it is not orange? b. If you pick four M&M's in a row, what is the probability that i. they are all blue? ii. none are green? iii. at least one is red? iv. the fourth one is the first one that is brown? c. After picking 10 M&M's in a row, you still have not picked a red one. A friend says that you should have a better chance of getting a red candy on your next pick since you have yet to see one. Comment on your friend's statement.
Question 30
Essay
A survey of local car dealers revealed that 64% of all cars sold last month had CD players, 28% had alarm systems, and 22% had both CD players and alarm systems. a. What is the probability one of these cars selected at random had neither a CD player nor an alarm system? b. What is the probability that a car had a CD player unprotected by an alarm system? c. What is the probability a car with an alarm system had a CD player? d. Are having a CD player and an alarm system disjoint events? Explain.
Question 31
Essay
Surprised by a high number of customers who purchased specialty pet clothing that day, the owner decided that her 4% estimate must have been too low. How many clothing sales would it have taken to convince you? Justify your answer.