A Cash Flow Is Expected to Be $500

Multiple Choice

A cash flow is expected to be $500.00 (50% probability) or $1,000.00 (50% probability) next year. Assuming the cash flow next year is $500.00, the cash flow the following year is $400.00 (60% probability) or $600.00 (40% probability) . Assuming the cash flow next year is $1,000.00, the cash flow the following year is $1,200.00 (80% probability) or $2,000.00 (20%) probability. What is the probability of a $1,200.00 cash flow two years from today?

A) 40%
B) 30%
C) 20%
D) 10%