Question 1

Fred plays the Lottery every week. He is very unhappy, and figures that winning the Lottery will make all his unhappiness go away. Fred is engaged in

Accepted Answer

A)  regression to the mean. 
B)  affective forecasting. 
C)  the conjunctive error. 
D)  the gambler's fallacy. 
E)  None of the above

Question 2

A difference in two numbers, like the means of two groups, is statistically significant when

Accepted Answer

A)  it is smaller than usual. 
B)  it is particularly likely to occur. 
C)  it is unlikely to occur by chance. 
D)  its probability is near .50.

Question 3

In general, when someone scores extremely high or low on some measure, she or he will tend to score closer toward the mean (average) on a second measurement. This is called

Accepted Answer

A)  regression to the mean. 
B)  statistical significance. 
C)  the conjunctive error. 
D)  an illusory correlation.

Question 4

Differences between samples don't mean that there are real differences between the groups being sampled unless the differences are statistically significant.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

John and Lisa have had 5 children, all girls! Given equal likelihood of a healthy pregnancy at each conception, what is the probability of having 5 female babies in a row?

Accepted Answer

A)  0.03125 
B)  0.00001 
C)  0.125 
D)  0.00145

Question 6

The use of representativeness in estimating probabilities frequently leads to a neglect of

Accepted Answer

A)  confidence levels. 
B)  inferential statistics. 
C)  sample size. 
D)  base rates.

Question 7

The purchase of insurance is a type of "bet" that you hope to lose.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

Your evil twin just took a college entrance exam and scored very, very low. If he takes it again, he will probably obtain an even lower score on his second try.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Most people assess the risk of elective surgery (e.g., a "nose job") as being safer than nonelective surgery. This example demonstrates which concept about how perceptions influence probabilities?

Accepted Answer

A)  bias toward control of events 
B)  bias toward known events 
C)  regression toward the mean 
D)  base rate neglect

Question 10

A/an __________ is a number calculated on a sample of people.

Accepted Answer

A)  likelihood 
B)  expected values 
C)  parameter 
D)  statistic

Question 11

The probability of getting "heads" three times in a row in three flips of a fair coin is

Accepted Answer

A)  0.5 
B)  0.25 
C)  0.125 
D)  0.0625

Question 12

Two or more events are __________ when the occurrence of one event does not affect the occurrence of the other events.

Accepted Answer

A)  probable 
B)  improbable 
C)  mutually exclusive 
D)  independent 
E)  None of the above

Question 13

Two events are __________ when if one occurs, the other cannot occur.

Accepted Answer

A)  probable 
B)  improbable 
C)  mutually exclusive 
D)  independent 
E)  None of the above

Question 14

Carlos was timing how fast his rat ran the maze. He found that rat A ran extraordinarily fast yesterday compared to the five other rats in his sample. According to the concept regression toward the mean, which of following is likely to happen tomorrow?

Accepted Answer

A)  Rat A will run extraordinarily fast 
B)  Rat A will run at a pace more similar to the average running pace 
C)  Rat A will run the slowest of the sample of rats 
D)  Rat A will refuse to run

Question 15

When unusual events occur (e.g., you recover from a terminal illness), we can conclude that something other than luck was responsible.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

Rhonda is going to "33 Flavors" to get a double-scoop of ice cream. What is the probability that she will order Cherry Vanilla or Butterscotch?

Accepted Answer

A)  12086 
B)  12055 
C)  1 / 33 X 1 / 33 
D)  It is impossible to tell, Rhonda is very unpredictable

Question 17

If a method of contraception has a 6% failure rate, then you would expect the same probability of getting pregnant in one year of use as you would in 10 years of use.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 18

Explain the conjunction error, including an example of research investigating the conjunction error.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Explain the conjunction error, including an example...

Question 19

Julie is single woman living in southern California. She is an independent thinker and plays the piano. She regularly donates money to her local animal shelter. If I think that it is more likely that Julie has pets and is a bank teller than it is that she is just a bank teller, I am making a/an

Accepted Answer

A)  heuristic error. 
B)  conjunctive error. 
C)  illusory correlation. 
D)  gambler's fallacy. 
E)  None of the above

Question 20

Discuss the various issues affecting probabilistic assessments of risk.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Discuss the various issues affecting probabilistic assessments...

Exam 7: Likelihood and Uncertainty: Understanding Probabilities

Fred plays the Lottery every week. He is very unhappy, and figures that winning the Lottery will make all his unhappiness go away. Fred is engaged in

A difference in two numbers, like the means of two groups, is statistically significant when

In general, when someone scores extremely high or low on some measure, she or he will tend to score closer toward the mean (average) on a second measurement. This is called

Differences between samples don't mean that there are real differences between the groups being sampled unless the differences are statistically significant.

John and Lisa have had 5 children, all girls! Given equal likelihood of a healthy pregnancy at each conception, what is the probability of having 5 female babies in a row?

The use of representativeness in estimating probabilities frequently leads to a neglect of

The purchase of insurance is a type of "bet" that you hope to lose.

Your evil twin just took a college entrance exam and scored very, very low. If he takes it again, he will probably obtain an even lower score on his second try.

Most people assess the risk of elective surgery (e.g., a "nose job") as being safer than nonelective surgery. This example demonstrates which concept about how perceptions influence probabilities?

A/an __________ is a number calculated on a sample of people.

The probability of getting "heads" three times in a row in three flips of a fair coin is

Two or more events are __________ when the occurrence of one event does not affect the occurrence of the other events.

Two events are __________ when if one occurs, the other cannot occur.

Carlos was timing how fast his rat ran the maze. He found that rat A ran extraordinarily fast yesterday compared to the five other rats in his sample. According to the concept regression toward the mean, which of following is likely to happen tomorrow?

When unusual events occur (e.g., you recover from a terminal illness), we can conclude that something other than luck was responsible.

Rhonda is going to "33 Flavors" to get a double-scoop of ice cream. What is the probability that she will order Cherry Vanilla or Butterscotch?

If a method of contraception has a 6% failure rate, then you would expect the same probability of getting pregnant in one year of use as you would in 10 years of use.

Explain the conjunction error, including an example of research investigating the conjunction error.

Julie is single woman living in southern California. She is an independent thinker and plays the piano. She regularly donates money to her local animal shelter. If I think that it is more likely that Julie has pets and is a bank teller than it is that she is just a bank teller, I am making a/an

Discuss the various issues affecting probabilistic assessments of risk.