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Suppose That the Asset Value of a Firm Evolves According

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Suppose that the asset value of a firm evolves according to a lognormal diffusion,as in Merton (1974) .The current value of the firm's assets is $100 million,and its volatility is 24.24%.Suppose too that the firm has only one issue of debt outstanding: zero-coupon debt with a maturity of three years,and a face value of $70 million.Finally,suppose that the risk-free rate of interest is 4% (continuously-compounded terms) for all maturities.What is the risk-neutral probability of the firm defaulting at maturity of the debt?


A) 17.12%
B) 19.23%
C) 20.02%
D) 21.22%

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