Imagine a Base Rate of 2 Percent for a Disease

Multiple Choice

Imagine a base rate of 2 percent for a disease, a false positive rate of 10 percent, and a sensitivity rate of 90 percent for the screening test for the disease. Which is the BEST estimate of the conditional probability that a person given a positive test result actually has the disease?

A) 5 percent
B) 10 percent
C) 15 percent
D) 20 percent