Question 1

Worst case analysis is a(n) ____ view of the problem.

Accepted Answer

A)  pessimistic 
B)  optimistic 
C)  risky 
D)  certain

Question 2

If you have historical data for any of the random variables in your model, you can use this dialog to instruct Analytic Solver Platform to automatically identify and suggest appropriate probability distributions for your data.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 3

What is a weakness of manual what-if analysis?

Accepted Answer

A)  biased sample values of performance measures 
B)  hard to do many what-if scenarios 
C)  does not provide distribution information 
D)  all of these are weaknesses

Question 4

In the face of uncertainty, some people react with paralysis, or they do exhaustive research to avoid making a decision.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.  
-A simulation model was replicated 100 times yielding a mean of 82.59 with variance of 17.66. Of the 100 replications, 11 replications yielded an outcome over a value of 100. What is the 95% confidence interval on the proportion of simulations whose outcomes exceeded a value of 100?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information...

Question 6

Which of the following best describes a random variable?

Accepted Answer

A)  A spreadsheet input cell containing a random number generator. 
B)  The outcome of a simulation model. 
C)  Any variable whose value cannot be predicted with certainty. 
D)  All of these describe random variables.

Question 7

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.  
-What function should be used for generating random numbers between a and b from a symmetric triangular distribution when the most likely value is (a + b)/2?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information...

Question 8

To perform simulation in a spreadsheet, we must first place a random number generator (RNG) formula in each cell that represents a random, or uncertain, independent variable.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

What is the correct Analytic Solver Platform function for generating random numbers from the following distribution on the number of children in families (assume a reference to the current worksheet).

Accepted Answer

A)  =PsiCustom(A2:A6,B2:B6) 
B)  =PsiRandom(A2:A6,B2:B6) 
C)  =PsiDiscrete(A2:A6,B2:B6) 
D)  =PsiUniform(A2:A6,B2:B6)

Question 10

Which of the following do not help determine the magnitude of risk in a decision-making problem?

Accepted Answer

A)  The level of uncertainty in outcome. 
B)  The magnitude of potential loss. 
C)  The level of management interest in the problem. 
D)  The level of uncertainty in input variables.

Question 11

Exhibit 12.3
The following questions use the information below.
An auto parts store wants to simulate its inventory system for engine oil. The company has collected data on the shipping time for oil and the daily demand for cases of oil. A case of oil generates a $10 profit. Customers can buy oil at any auto parts store so there are no backorders (the company loses the sale and profit). The company orders 30 cases whenever the inventory position falls below the reorder point of 15 cases. Orders are placed at the beginning of the day and delivered at the beginning of the day so the oil is available on the arrival day. An average service level of 99% is desired. The following spreadsheets have been developed for this problem. The company has simulated 2 weeks of operation for their inventory system. The current level of on-hand inventory is 25 units and no orders are pending.   
-Using the information in Exhibit 12.3, what Analytic Solver Platform function should be used in cell I8 to determine the lead time for an order?

Accepted Answer

A)  =PsiDiscrete($B$6:$B$8, $C$6:$C$8) 
B)  =PsiPoisson(Data!$B$6:$B$8,$Data!$C$6:$C$8) 
C)  =PsiBinomial(Data!$B$6:$B$8,$Data!$C$6:$C$8) 
D)  =PsiNormal($B$6:$C$8)

Question 12

Best case analysis is a(n) ____ view of the problem.

Accepted Answer

A)  pessimistic 
B)  optimistic 
C)  risky 
D)  certain

Question 13

Simulation is used to

Accepted Answer

A)  find possible worst case values for the dependent variable(s). 
B)  find worst case and best case values for the dependent variable(s). 
C)  find distribution information for the dependent variable(s). 
D)  find median values for the dependent variable(s).

Question 14

Exhibit 12.3
The following questions use the information below.
An auto parts store wants to simulate its inventory system for engine oil. The company has collected data on the shipping time for oil and the daily demand for cases of oil. A case of oil generates a $10 profit. Customers can buy oil at any auto parts store so there are no backorders (the company loses the sale and profit). The company orders 30 cases whenever the inventory position falls below the reorder point of 15 cases. Orders are placed at the beginning of the day and delivered at the beginning of the day so the oil is available on the arrival day. An average service level of 99% is desired. The following spreadsheets have been developed for this problem. The company has simulated 2 weeks of operation for their inventory system. The current level of on-hand inventory is 25 units and no orders are pending.   
-Using the information in Exhibit 12.3, what formula should go in cell H8 to determine if an order should be placed?

Accepted Answer

A)  =IF(G8$D$3,1,0) 
C)  =IF(G8<$D$3,0,1) 
D)  =IF(G8<$D$4,1,0)

Question 15

Which of the following probability distributions are associated with discrete outcomes?

Accepted Answer

A)  Gamma 
B)  Custom 
C)  Normal 
D)  Exponential

Question 16

Which Analytic Solver Platform function will generate random numbers between 3 and 7 from a continuous uniform distribution?

Accepted Answer

A)  =PsiConUniform(3, 7) 
B)  =PsiUniDist(3, 7) 
C)  =PsiUniform(3, 7) 
D)  =PsiTruncate(3, 7)

Question 17

What method is used to generate observations from a distribution?

Accepted Answer

A)  random number generator 
B)  sample generator 
C)  problem generator 
D)  steady state generator

Question 18

How should one determine which RNGs to employ in a spreadsheet simulation model?

Accepted Answer

A)  Use the Analytic Solver Platform gallery and pick a distribution. 
B)  Generate thousands of samples and compare the resulting histogram to ensure the distribution is correct. 
C)  Solve the deterministic model repeatedly and use Analytic Solver Platform distribution fitting tools. 
D)  The distributions selected should represent the underlying pool of values expected to occur.

Question 19

Inventory position is defined as

Accepted Answer

A)  ending inventory + outstanding orders 
B)  ending inventory − backorders 
C)  outstanding orders − on hand inventory 
D)  ending inventory

Question 20

In running simulations under Analytic Solver Platform it is desirable to use more simulation runs because

Accepted Answer

A)  confidence level regarding the decision precision is improved 
B)  point estimates are more accurate 
C)  simulation run length is decreased 
D)  cost is decreased

Exam 12: Introduction to Simulation Using Analytic Solver Platform

Worst case analysis is a(n) ____ view of the problem.

If you have historical data for any of the random variables in your model, you can use this dialog to instruct Analytic Solver Platform to automatically identify and suggest appropriate probability distributions for your data.

What is a weakness of manual what-if analysis?

In the face of uncertainty, some people react with paralysis, or they do exhaustive research to avoid making a decision.

Which of the following best describes a random variable?

To perform simulation in a spreadsheet, we must first place a random number generator (RNG) formula in each cell that represents a random, or uncertain, independent variable.

What is the correct Analytic Solver Platform function for generating random numbers from the following distribution on the number of children in families (assume a reference to the current worksheet) .

Which of the following do not help determine the magnitude of risk in a decision-making problem?

Best case analysis is a(n) ____ view of the problem.

Simulation is used to

Which of the following probability distributions are associated with discrete outcomes?

Which Analytic Solver Platform function will generate random numbers between 3 and 7 from a continuous uniform distribution?

What method is used to generate observations from a distribution?

How should one determine which RNGs to employ in a spreadsheet simulation model?

Inventory position is defined as

In running simulations under Analytic Solver Platform it is desirable to use more simulation runs because