Exam 10: Project Analysis

Monte Carlo simulation involves the following steps: I.Step 1: Modeling the project; II.Step 2: Specifying probabilities; III.Step 3: Simulating cash flows; IV.Step 4: Calculating present value

The Financial Calculator Company proposes to invest $12 million in a new calculator-making plant. Fixed costs are $3 million per year. A financial calculator costs $10 per unit to manufacture and sells for $30 per unit. If the plant lasts for four years and the cost of capital is 20 percent, what is the break-even level of annual sales? (Assume that revenues and costs occur at the end of each year. Assume no taxes.)Round to the nearest 1,000 units.

Why is sensitivity analysis less realistic than Monte Carlo simulation?

The Solar Calculator Company proposes to invest $5 million in a new calculator-making plant. Fixed costs are $2 million per year. A solar calculator costs $5 per unit to manufacture and sells for $20 per unit. If the plant lasts for three years and the cost of capital is 12 percent, what is the break-even level of annual sales? (Assume that revenues and costs occur at the end of each year. Assume no taxes.)Round to the nearest 1,000 units.

You calculate the following estimates of project cash flows (there are no taxes): The revenues and costs occur in perpetuity. The cost of capital is 8 percent. Conduct a sensitivity analysis of the project's NPV to variations in costs. (Answers appear in order: [Pessimistic, Most Likely, Optimistic].)

Project analysis, beyond simply calculating NPV, includes the following procedures: I.sensitivity analysis; II.break-even analysis; III.Monte Carlo simulation; IV.scenario analysis

A project requires an initial investment in equipment of $90,000 and then requires an initial investment in working capital of $10,000 (at t = 0). You expect the project to produce sales revenue of $120,000 per year for three years. You estimate manufacturing costs at 60 percent of revenues. (Assume all revenues and costs occur at year-end [i.e., t = 1, t = 2, and t = 3]). The equipment depreciates using straight-line depreciation over three years. At the end of the project, the firm can sell the equipment for $10,000 and also recover the investment in net working capital. The corporate tax rate is 21 percent and the cost of capital is 15 percent. Calculate the NPV of the project.

The break-even point in terms of NPV is usually lower than the break-even point on an accounting profit basis.

Firms that operate at break-even on an accounting profit basis are really losing the opportunity cost of capital on their investments.

In constructing a Monte Carlo simulation model of an investment project, one typically ignores possible interdependencies between variables.

Briefly explain the term real options.

Define the term abandonment value.

You are planning to produce a new action figure called "Hillary." However, you are very uncertain about the demand for the product. If it is a hit, you will have net cash flows of $50 million per year for three years (starting next year [i.e., at t = 1]). If it fails, you will only have net cash flows of $10 million per year for two years (also starting next year). There is an equal chance that it will be a hit or failure (probability = 50 percent). You will not know whether it is a hit or a failure until the first year's cash flows are in . You have to spend $80 million immediately for equipment and the rights to produce the figure. If you can sell your equipment for $60 million once the first year's cash flows are received, calculate the value of the abandonment option. (The discount rate is 10 percent.)

Hammer Company proposes to invest $6 million in a new type of hammer-making equipment. The fixed costs are $1 million per year. The equipment will last for five years. The manufacturing cost per hammer is $1 and each hammer sells for $6. The cost of capital is 20 percent. Calculate the break-even sales volume per year. (Ignore taxes. Round to the nearest 1,000.)

Petroleum Inc. (PI)controls off-shore oil leases. It is considering the construction of a deep-sea oil rig at a cost of $500 million. The price of oil is $100/bbl. and extraction costs are $50/bbl. PI expects costs to remain constant. The rig will produce an estimated 1,200,000 bbl. per year forever. The risk-free rate is 10 percent per year, which is also the cost of capital. (Ignore taxes). Suppose that oil prices are uncertain and are equally likely to be $120/bbl. or $80/bbl. next year. Suppose that PI has the option to postpone the project by one year. Calculate the value of the real option to postpone the project for one year. (There is some rounding in the answer.)

In most cases the net present value break-even quantity is higher than the accounting profit break-even quantity.

Briefly explain timing options.

The following are drawbacks of sensitivity analysis except

A project requires an initial investment in equipment of $90,000 and then requires an initial investment in working capital of $10,000 (at t = 0). You expect the project to produce sales revenue of $120,000 per year for three years. You estimate manufacturing costs at 60 percent of revenues. (Assume all revenues and costs occur at year-end [i.e., t = 1, t = 2, and t = 3]). The equipment depreciates using straight-line depreciation over three years. At the end of the project, the firm can sell the equipment for $10,000. The corporate tax rate is 21 percent and the cost of capital is 16.5 percent. Calculate the NPV of the project.

Briefly discuss break-even analysis.