Exam 7: Demand Estimation and Forecasting

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Refer to the following: A forecaster used the regression equation Qt=a+bt+c1D1+c2D2+c3D3Q _ { t } = a + b t + c _ { 1 } D _ { 1 } + c _ { 2 } D _ { 2 } + c _ { 3 } D _ { 3 } and quarterly sales data for 1996I-2013IV (t = 1, ..., 64) for an appliance manufacturer to obtain the results shown below. Q is quarterly sales, and D1,D2D _ { 1 } , D _ { 2 } and D3D _ { 3 } are dummy variables for quarters I, II, and III. DEPENDENTVARIAELE: aT R-SQUARE F-RATIO P-VALUE ON F OESERVATIONS: 64 0.8768 107.982 0.0001 PARAMETER STANDARD VARIAELE ESTIMATE ERROR T-RATIO P-VALUE INTERCEPT 30.0 12.8 2.34 0.0224 T 1.5 0.70 2.14 0.0362 D1 10.0 3.0 3.33 0.0015 D2 25.0 7.2 3.47 0.0010 D3 40.0 15.8 2.53 0.0140 -What is the estimated intercept of the trend line in the second quarter?

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C

One problem with consumer interviews is that

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D

Manager-determined prices are

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D

Refer to the following: The following linear demand specification is estimated for Conlan Enterprises, a price-setting firm: Q=a+bP+cM+dPRQ = a + b P + c M + d P _ { R } where Q is the quantity demanded of the product Conlan Enterprises sells, P is the price of that product, M is income, and PRP _ { R } is the price of a related product. The results of the estimation are presented below: DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Q R-SQUARE F-RATIO P-VALUEONF OBSERVATIONS: 32 0.7984 36.14 0.0001 VARIABLE PARAMETER STANDARD ESTIMATE ERROR T-RATIO P-VALUE INTERCEPT 846.30 76.70 11.03 0.0001 P -8.60 2.60 -3.31 0.0026 M 0.0184 0.0048 3.83 0.0007 PR -4.3075 1.230 -3.50 0.0016 -At the 1% level of significance, the critical value of the -statistic is equal to __________.

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Time-series models

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A market-determined price

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Refer to the following: The manufacturer of Beanie Baby dolls used quarterly price data for 2005I - 2013IV (t = 1, ..., 36) and the regression equation Pt=a+bt+c1D1t+c2D2t+c3D3tP _ { t } = a + b t + c _ { 1 } D 1 _ { t } + c _ { 2 } D 2 _ { t } + c _ { 3 } D 3 _ { t } to forecast doll prices in the year 2014. PtP _ { t } is the quarterly price of dolls, and D1t,D2tD 1 _ { t } , D 2 _ { t } and D3tD 3 _ { t } are dummy variables for quarters I, II, and III, respectively. DEPENDENT VARIABLE: PT R-SQUARE F-RATIO P-VALUE ON F OBSERVATIONS: 36 0.9078 76.34 0.0001 VARIABLE PARAMETER STANDARD T-RATIO P-VALUE ESTERCEPT 24.0 6.20 3.87 0.0005 T 0.800 0.240 3.33 0.0022 D1 -8.0 2.60 -3.08 0.0043 D2 -6.00 1.80 -3.33 0.0022 D3 -4.0 0.60 -6.67 0.0001 -The estimated QUARTERLY increase in price is ______, and the estimated ANNUAL increase in price is ______ .

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The estimated demand for a good is Q^=703.5P0.6M+4Pz\hat { Q } = 70 - 3.5 P - 0.6 M + 4 P _ { z } , where Q^\hat { Q } = units of the good, P = price of the good, M = income, and PzP _ { z } = price of related good Z. All parameter estimates are statistically significant. Which of the following statements are correct?

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Refer to the following: The manufacturer of Beanie Baby dolls used quarterly price data for 2005I - 2013IV (t = 1, ..., 36) and the regression equation Pt=a+bt+c1D1t+c2D2t+c3D3tP _ { t } = a + b t + c _ { 1 } D 1 _ { t } + c _ { 2 } D 2 _ { t } + c _ { 3 } D 3 _ { t } to forecast doll prices in the year 2014. PtP _ { t } is the quarterly price of dolls, and D1t,D2tD 1 _ { t } , D 2 _ { t } and D3tD 3 _ { t } are dummy variables for quarters I, II, and III, respectively. DEPENDENT VARIABLE: PT R-SQUARE F-RATIO P-VALUE ON F OBSERVATIONS: 36 0.9078 76.34 0.0001 VARIABLE PARAMETER STANDARD T-RATIO P-VALUE ESTERCEPT 24.0 6.20 3.87 0.0005 T 0.800 0.240 3.33 0.0022 D1 -8.0 2.60 -3.08 0.0043 D2 -6.00 1.80 -3.33 0.0022 D3 -4.0 0.60 -6.67 0.0001 -In any given year price tends to vary from quarter to quarter as follows:

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Time-series data

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Qualitative forecasting methods

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Refer to the following: The estimated demand for a good is Q^=4,80016P0.65M1.5PR\hat { Q } = 4,800 - 16 P - 0.65 M - 1.5 P _ { R } where Q is the quantity demanded of the good, P is the price of the good, M is income, and PRP _ { R } is the price of related good R. -The good is

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Refer to the following: The estimated demand for a good is Q^=4,80016P0.65M1.5PR\hat { Q } = 4,800 - 16 P - 0.65 M - 1.5 P _ { R } where Q is the quantity demanded of the good, P is the price of the good, M is income, and PRP _ { R } is the price of related good R. -If the price of the good rises by $10, all else constant, the quantity demanded will ________ by ________ units.

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For estimated demand for cement is

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Refer to the following: The estimated demand for a good is Q^=4,80016P0.65M1.5PR\hat { Q } = 4,800 - 16 P - 0.65 M - 1.5 P _ { R } where Q is the quantity demanded of the good, P is the price of the good, M is income, and PRP _ { R } is the price of related good R. -The good and good R are

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Refer to the following: The manufacturer of Beanie Baby dolls used quarterly price data for 2005I - 2013IV (t = 1, ..., 36) and the regression equation Pt=a+bt+c1D1t+c2D2t+c3D3tP _ { t } = a + b t + c _ { 1 } D 1 _ { t } + c _ { 2 } D 2 _ { t } + c _ { 3 } D 3 _ { t } to forecast doll prices in the year 2014. PtP _ { t } is the quarterly price of dolls, and D1t,D2tD 1 _ { t } , D 2 _ { t } and D3tD 3 _ { t } are dummy variables for quarters I, II, and III, respectively. DEPENDENT VARIABLE: PT R-SQUARE F-RATIO P-VALUE ON F OBSERVATIONS: 36 0.9078 76.34 0.0001 VARIABLE PARAMETER STANDARD T-RATIO P-VALUE ESTERCEPT 24.0 6.20 3.87 0.0005 T 0.800 0.240 3.33 0.0022 D1 -8.0 2.60 -3.08 0.0043 D2 -6.00 1.80 -3.33 0.0022 D3 -4.0 0.60 -6.67 0.0001 -At the 2 percent level of statistical significance, the results indicate that price in the ________ quarter is significantly lower than in any other quarter.

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Refer to the following: The estimated demand for a good is Q^=255P+0.32M+12PR\hat { Q } = 25 - 5 P + 0.32 M + 12 P _ { R } where Q is the quantity demanded of the good, P is the price of the good, M is income, and PRP _ { R } is the price of related good R. -The coefficient on P

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Refer to the following: The estimated demand for a good is Q^=255P+0.32M+12PR\hat { Q } = 25 - 5 P + 0.32 M + 12 P _ { R } where Q is the quantity demanded of the good, P is the price of the good, M is income, and PRP _ { R } is the price of related good R. -If income decreases by $1,000, all else constant, quantity demanded will ________ by _________ units.

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Dummy variables are used in time-series forecasting models

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Seasonal or cyclical variation in a time series model

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